After yesterday's flurry of UK-EU trade talks documentation today the reflection - that the UK government has committed to a massive increase in trade barriers with Europe, which will scarcely be offset anywhere else. Demonstrating the truth of this statement... 1/ 
Of course that's an extract from Boris Johnson's speech yesterday in which he lauded the virtues of free trade, then committed to take action to restrict it. Because no alignment, if taken literally, is going to mean either no trade agreement, or a very thin tariff only one. 2/
Favoured Number 10 courtiers have been making the argument that the EU is protectionist, and out of step with the rest of the world in their approach to reguatory alignment. Both complex subjects, but broadly (though with exceptions) the argument doesn't hold up at all 3/
It could be that we're not meant to take Johnson's words literally. That he doesn't really mean no alignment. In the slightly more detailed written statement there is a hint that maybe there could be some alignment. 4/ gov.uk/government/spe…
What is missing entirely from Johnson's speech and the written statement is any suggestion of particular economic priorities for trade with the EU. It is a mostly to be a tariff reduction agreement, ignoring almost completely the non-tariff barriers. 5/
Take for example scientific research, very much a traded service. And the subject of the latest @UKTradeForum post. Without ECJ oversight, we are unlikely to participate in future EU programmes with adverse consequences. 6/ uktradeforum.net/2020/02/03/don…
@UKTradeForum The important negotiation the UK faces is, as always with trade agreements, with ourselves. To what extent are current hard red lines (no alignment, no ECJ) actually flexible in particular circumstances? For individual sectors, can they press for exceptions / creativity? 7/
@UKTradeForum As I've said before there is no way it can be a sustainable UK-EU relationship to be outside every european economic cooperation structure because we don't like something about it. If we do leave we will rejoin some over time. But can we get there without leaving? 8/
@UKTradeForum This then also answers the question of how the EU will react to the UK position. The EU is still negotiating internally, but the more they stick with tried and tested, the easier that is. What they cannot judge at the moment is the seriousness of the UK position. 9/
@UKTradeForum The EU knows no deal is a possibility, and while that would not be welcome, neither will they break red lines to prevent no deal. Some key issues for the EU were settled in the Withdrawal Agreement, which helps. 10/
@UKTradeForum I make it 50:50 right now as to whether a tariffs deal can be reached by the end of the year. Less than 50:50 for anything more than that. Then many years of the UK seeking to rebuild ties that we initially lose with our hard red lines. 11/
@UKTradeForum Meanwhile globally we will seek tariff reduction deals with some elements of reducing non-tariff barriers - but good luck trying to get the US to do the latter in a trade agreement. Haggis still isn't going to be exported. 12/
@UKTradeForum Overall then, finishing with unlucky 13, the UK government has set out some broad but contradictory principles, and at some stage these will be tested by UK stakeholders. Meanwhile tariff reduction talks will progress. But the former is the negotiation to watch. 13/ end
