Same story with unemployment rates. His talking point changed. The inherited trend, not so much. 
POTUS will tell us about the # of jobs added since the 2016 election.
He will hide the fact that job growth has largely continued on the inherited trend, but slower.
He will hide the fact that job growth has largely continued on the inherited trend, but slower.
He will hide the fact that job growth is 604K behind the pace he promised = 25 million new jobs over the decade = 2.5 million/year pace.
An additional 604,000 Americans would have jobs now if we were on the promised pace.
An additional 604,000 Americans would have jobs now if we were on the promised pace.
He made big promises & has failed to deliver. He promised the economy would grow at 4%.
It grew at 2.3% over the last year and 2.1% over the last quarter.
It grew at 2.3% over the last year and 2.1% over the last quarter.
This chicken took over the wheel when momentum's going the right direction.
It may squawk & preen & claim it's doing an awesome job driving.
It would be foolish to believe it.
#NoFool
It may squawk & preen & claim it's doing an awesome job driving.
It would be foolish to believe it.
#NoFool
We shouldn't judge POTUSs on the state of the economy. All our decisions together produce the economy. It doesn't change when the resident of the White House does.
We should judge POTUSs on how they use the power of their office & the impact of those decisions.
#priorities
We should judge POTUSs on how they use the power of their office & the impact of those decisions.
#priorities
The administration managed 1 big economic policy change, Dec 2017's #TCJA tax law. It gave a massive gift ($$ requiring no behavior change) to company owners. Their profits immediately soared.
#priorities
#priorities
The benefits of the law flowed largely to the wealthiest Americans & to foreign investors.
The law was so intent on pushing benefits to company owners, foreign investors got more benefit than 60% of Americans combined.
#priorities
The law was so intent on pushing benefits to company owners, foreign investors got more benefit than 60% of Americans combined.
#priorities
#WhoIsBetterOffNow?
People with wealthy parents. They were worried they might not be able to inherit ENOUGH millions of $. They might have to work!
But #TCJA made millionaire heirs a priority.
forbes.com/sites/ashleaeb…
People with wealthy parents. They were worried they might not be able to inherit ENOUGH millions of $. They might have to work!
But #TCJA made millionaire heirs a priority.
forbes.com/sites/ashleaeb…
Meanwhile, real wage growth is slow & slowing. Average hour of work buys just 0.6% more now than a year ago.
Wages (blue) grew 2.9% over the year. Consumer prices (red) grew 2.3%. Working families squeezed btwn decelerating wages & accelerating prices.
bls.gov/news.release/r…
Wages (blue) grew 2.9% over the year. Consumer prices (red) grew 2.3%. Working families squeezed btwn decelerating wages & accelerating prices.
bls.gov/news.release/r…
The labor market tightened steadily for years after 2010. Job openings (blue) grew. The number of job seekers (red) fell.
That progress basically stalled a year ago. Job openings have been falling all of 2019. Job seekers still falling, but barely.
That progress basically stalled a year ago. Job openings have been falling all of 2019. Job seekers still falling, but barely.
POTUS may talk about how wages are growing faster for blue-collar workers than for higher-wage workers.
Independent analysis finds that difference is due to state & local minimum-wage increases, not administration policies.
Independent analysis finds that difference is due to state & local minimum-wage increases, not administration policies.
POTUS will brag that U.S. economic performance is outperforming forecasts.
But the U.S. economy has been outperforming these forecasts consistently for years since the end of the Great Recession.
obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2017/01/0…
But the U.S. economy has been outperforming these forecasts consistently for years since the end of the Great Recession.
obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2017/01/0…
POTUS will brag that U.S. economic performance is outperforming other nations.
But the U.S. economy has been outperforming other nations consistently for years since the end of the Great Recession.
#NoFool
obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2017/01/0…
But the U.S. economy has been outperforming other nations consistently for years since the end of the Great Recession.
#NoFool
obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2017/01/0…
In sum, the labor market has strengths thanks largely to inherited trends. His administration was born on third base & he works to con us into thinking it hit a triple.
POTUS made big promises but is failing to deliver, tho his #TCJA delivered big $ to the wealthiest Americans.
POTUS made big promises but is failing to deliver, tho his #TCJA delivered big $ to the wealthiest Americans.
A few more rhetorical sleights-of-hand to be wise to.
Comparing the # of Americans working now to the past is misleading because the population is larger than ever before.
Instead, labor economists focus on share of adults employed, which increased steadily since 2013. #NoFool
Comparing the # of Americans working now to the past is misleading because the population is larger than ever before.
Instead, labor economists focus on share of adults employed, which increased steadily since 2013. #NoFool
The inherited rate of employment growth for women (blue: % change over the year) has continued. The rate of growth for men (red) slowed dramatically a year ago.
The administration, especially POTUS's daughter, will often try to spin slowing growth for men as good news for women.
The administration, especially POTUS's daughter, will often try to spin slowing growth for men as good news for women.
U.S. median household income growth slowed in 2017 compared to the prior 3 years and slowed even further in 2018. Instead of focusing on slowing growth, POTUS will try to take credit for income's level.
SNAP (food stamp) payments falling since 2013, as the economy improved & employment rates increased.
Taking credit for stuff he inherited is very on-brand for POTUS.
We could go on all day like this but I have other work to do. To evaluate a claim, ask yourself, what's the evidence that POTUS's policies really caused that to move or is this a continuation of inherited trends?
We could go on all day like this but I have other work to do. To evaluate a claim, ask yourself, what's the evidence that POTUS's policies really caused that to move or is this a continuation of inherited trends?
Yup
