Some thoughts on Xu Zhangrun’s essay. He says that the people are no longer afraid, but his essay suggests instead they no longer have hope. If true, that is a slow-burning long-term threat to the stability of the Chinese party-state. 1/8
First of all, it is important to note that Professor Xu is an intellectual writer who writes for an intellectual audience. Do not take him as representative for popular sentiment. However, he does represent a strong and growing current of disaffection. 2/8
The literature on the endurance and successes of the Chinese Communist Party points out that China provides services that are comparatively good for a country at that stage of development, that people feel things are getting better, and that there is personal leeway. 3/8
Similarly, scholars countering modernisation theory’s expectations that a growing middle class will demand democratisation point out how—amid great urban-rural inequality—the Chinese middle class is in a kind of mutual protection pact vis-à-vis the poor. 4/8
If the services provided by the government turn out to be bad, if things stop getting better, and if there is no longer a possibility to build a life around the system, and if the middle class finds the Party treats it not much different from the poor, then they lose hope. 5/8
Xu Zhangrun’s points are about this: mistakes in governing, forcing Party politics on the whole of society, Red Nobility taking over from the middle class’ beloved technocrats, the sight of chaos in Wuhan. People might now start to ask themselves if things will get better. 6/8
I might not agree with Xu that the countdown to constitutionalism in China has begun now. Too uncertain. If the crisis ends soon, the CCP might even win a partial propaganda victory. But it doesn’t, disaffection with the system will grow over time. More people will lose hope. 7/8
This does not imply revolution will follow. But, over time, such disaffection will eat away at the supports of the system, weakening it. This slow-burn will eat away at Party support until the next crisis comes. And the next one after that. 8/8
