Thread by @ElonBachman

1\ Some pop poli-sci that may be wrong, but I want to air it

People look at the low lethality of Coronavirus (comparable to common flu) and say "But it MUST be bad, otherwise China wouldn't be reacting this way"

I think this misses a crucial point:

2\ Totalitarian regimes have an implicit compact with their citizens:

"We will run everything in your life. In exchange, nothing will ever go wrong."

Because if anything goes wrong, it can only be the fault of the state

3\ This is why Chernobyl was an existential embarrassment for the USSR

With nobody to blame but themselves, the USSR had to cover it up

The CCP can't cover up Coronavirus, so they must instead project strength and decisiveness

4\ Now remember that this is the same CCP that forced the entire country to stop working and kill sparrows in the 60s

Same CCP that has 1M Muslims in concentration camps

Same CCP that's embarrassed by its tardy SARS response

"Proportionality" is not part of the playbook

5\5 Maybe CoV will turn out to be a big deal (I'm betting deaths will be below 10K)

But let's not make the mistake of assuming the CCP is acting in proportion to the risks

Totalitarianism is a public relations game, and the CCP will make economic sacrifices to look in control