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Its critical to understand that the crisis unfolding at SAA is essentially a shareholder problem. The shareholder seems to have a pathological fear to back/support the turnaround strategy they themselves approved in Nov 2017. They failed to deliver on the
preconditions articulated in Apr 2018 in Parly. Without them it would be fruitless to even start to implement the strategy. This drove Jarana to resign.
The shareholder then decided to hurriedly resort to a BRP process for reasons that are unclear and
irrational. The preconditions are still not in place!! So, Matuson was brought in to re-live the Jarana experience. Except his team is far bigger and has a very large $ fee component. This is the contradiction and conundrum!!
There are three critical
preconditions among others.
1. The budget to execute the strategy must be in place and in the bank. ( estimate now is R6.7bn). It is not. The cuts announced by Matuson are a reaction to limited funds. Not strategy. So they are disruptive and shocking.
2. SAA must be exempted from the PFMA just like Telkom was.This is still outstanding. Without the exemption, Matuson is just performing the function of a government beaurocrat. Precisely why Jarana quit. All decision making must be vested with the CRO. Period
3. The board must be disbanded and replaced by small committee (triumvirate) with deep airline experience. This has not been done.
The BRP team plan to announce their strategy by end of Feb. But key route network components of that pending strategy are
already being implemented. Now we hear contradictory messages from Mantashe. Such a position should correctly be settled within cabinet. Statements like these move markets. They are irresponsible. Clearly President Ramaphosa is not in charge.
Can you imagine Mantashe making such a statement under Thabo Mbeki? He would already be resting in EC managing his livestock.
Policy incoherence drives all problems we currently experience.
The SAA story will not end well.
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