At the moment Asian geopolitics is informally divided between China and the anti-China coalition, consisting of the US, India, Japan and Australia. Terminating the VFA will alarm Japan most immediately, since a Chinese client state controlling Luzon would be a direct threat.
The VFA is comparatively insignificant and since its inception in 1999 hasn't done anything provocative. By turning it into an issue Duterte risks moving from an unnoticed position into one right between two giant millstones.
Now if there's one thing any moviegoer knows it's that when you are an insignificant human being never get between Godzilla and King Ghidorah when they are squaring off.
Most especially don't get between Godzilla and King Ghidora for the sole purpose of forcing the State Department to issue a tourist visa to one of your cronies, as seems the case here.
In dysfunctional societies leaders measure power by what they can do, even in caprice. In better ones leaders measure power by what they are allowed to do by law. In arguably the best societies the leader's power yardstick is what they are allowed by the 10 Commandments.
