Thread by @henryolsenEPPC

A thread on today's New Hampshire primary:

Unlike the Iowa caucus, today's vote is a primary election conducted by the state of New Hampshire. This means we can trust that results will be accurately and promptly counted. Expect to know the winner by 11pm ET.

1/x

Only 24 delegates are awarded tonight out of a bit under 4,000 delegates nationwide. Still, getting delegates is important in part because the new Democratic debate rules ensure participation in the NV debate for all candidates with 1 delegate or more.

2/x

8 delegates will be awarded based on the results in each of the state's two CD's, with the final 8 based on statewide returns. A candidate must get at least 15% of the total vote in one of these jurisdictions to get delegates. Delegates are awarded proportionally.

3/x

While there are a few towns that cross CD boundaries, it's easiest to think of CD 1 as consisting of Rockingham, Carroll, Strafford, and Belknap counties, as well as Manchester and three suburbs from Hillsborough county. The rest of the state is CD 2.

4/x

CD 2 is the more progressive of the two CDs. In 2016 Sanders won CD 2 by about 32,000 votes while he won CD 1 by about 25,000 votes. This difference could matter to candidates like Warren and Klobuchar if they are right on the 15% cusp.

5/x

If they are right around 15% statewide, then Warren could get a delegate or two out of CD 2 while Klobuchar could get one out of CD 1 without either getting a delegate from the other CD.

6/x

About half of the vote in 2016 was cast in the two suburban counties bordering MA, Hillsborough and Rockingham. This will be where Buttigieg has to do well if he is to take first place. Manchester and other working class areas are here, making it crucial for Biden too.

7/x

The three Connecticut River Valley counties (Cheshire, Sullivan, Grafton) cast about 17% of the vote in 2016. They are the state's progressive heart and Bernie will easily win here.

8/x

Merrimack and Strafford counties cast about 22% of the vote in 2016. Strafford was a bit more pro-Sanders than Merrimack, which contains the state's capital, Concord. Expect establishment Dems to do a bit better overall there tonight than in Strafford.

9/x

Belknap, Coos, and Carroll cast about 10% of the vote. This is the type of rural county where Klobuchar did best in IA, so maybe she will beat 15% here. Overall, though, they together mirrored the state in 2016 giving Sanders only a bit higher % than his statewide total.

10/x

If the polling averages are accurate, then Sanders will win CD 2 and should narrowly win CD 1, although Pete could prevail. Klobuchar will fight to get delegates even if she finishes third overall. Warren could get delegates in CD 2 and statewide.

11/x

But in both 2008 and 2016, the polling averages greatly overestimated the share going to the IA winner. In 08 it had Obama up 8% while Clinton won by 2.6%. In 16 it had Sanders +13% while he won by 22%. I would not be surprised to see this happen again.

12/x

My best guess is Sanders wins comfortably, with Buttigieg getting close to 20%. I think Klobuchar beats the 15% threshold, and Warren comes up just short. Biden drops to 5th around 10%.

13/13