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One of Bernie's critical strengths that is really being (deliberately?) overlooked in this "add up the moderates and he loses" stuff is that he is the second choice of a lot of voters. They won't just shift to the person who is on paper ideologically closest to their first choice
As a Warren supporter I'm hoping that a lot of them shift to her, obviously, but either way the idea that many voters as a whole identify themselves as Moderates or Centrists and are looking for The Best Moderate rather than the candidate who speaks to them rings false to me.
Very few voters are voting for a candidate's whole platform or ideological alignment. Mostly it's "Who inspires me? Who do I like?" There are Biden and Buttigieg voters who would go to Bernie not because they personally "shifted left" but he's the next one who catches their eye.
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