Must read for those who try to understand Macron’s urge to reset relations with Russia.
@piosmo says for Macron the Europeans were „too Atlanticist“ after the end of the Cold War and „have broken their word by allowing the extension of NATO far to the East“.
Another European error for Macron was to follow the Americans in sanctioning Russia after its attacks on Ukraine since 2014.
At that point already clear that Macron’s narrative strongly influenced by the narrative of the so called „Putinversteher“: a very one sided and even factually wrong reading of recent relations with Russia.
Truth is that both Nato enlargement and Russia sanctions to a large extent driven not by US but by Germany, both are crucial parts of German eastern policies in the last decades.
True also that France was reluctant to join Germany on both. But in both cases France faced a united German-US front: Kohl and Clinton, Merkel and Obama. France lost both fights and agreed.
Macron now equals the French position with „Europe“, ignoring Germany‘s crucial role in all this.
(Ar least if one follows @piosmo on this.)
@piosmo For Germany, both Nato enlargement and the Russia sanctions were crucial elements of a policy of stabilizing the historically unstable region of Central Europe at crucial moments after the order of the Cold War was gone.
@piosmo And of course for Central Europe especially Nato accession was vital to achieve the degree of stability, freedom and prosperity the region has achieved now.
@piosmo To prevent Russia from destabilizing this region again is a major German interest, and an interest of the region itself of course.
@piosmo Any Russia policy by Macron that doesn't understand this context, and fails to appreciate the building blocks of this policy driven by Germany and the US, is simply a non-starter, and leads to tensions and European disunity.
@piosmo Any new European Russia policy cannot just be based on the caricature of a poor Russia bullied by America with Europe as "a Trojan horse" (Macron). This not only fails to understand recent history, it also denies Russia true agency: Putin has his own views and projects.
@piosmo Furthermore, any new European Russia policy must build on Nato enlargement and Europe's successful pushback against Russian aggression in Ukraine as achievements that have stabilized the continent -- not be based on an opposition to both.
@piosmo The alternative narrative that Russia would have behaved differently without Nato enlargement and sanctions relies on shaky ground. It fails to take into account that the driver of the Kremlin's opposition is regime survival: democracy is toxic for autocracies.
@piosmo Not so much what Europe does, but what it is - a bloc of successful liberal democracies and market economies - is a threat to the Kremlin. Cooperation therefore is very limited by the nature of the regime.
@piosmo Germany has struggled with this for many years. Especially Frank-Walter Steinmeier but other German leaders as well tried to build a more cooperative relationship with Russia, going at great length. The response was more autocracy and more aggression against neighbors.
@piosmo The big risk is that Macron, by pursuing a unilateral reset of relations with Russia, is increasingly seen - and used - by Putin as an instrument for his policy of weakening Europe by undermining European and transatlantic coherence.
@piosmo Until now however Macron hasn't upset the European and transatlantic consensus with action. Yet his speeches and initiatives have already led to serious tensions between European capitals.
@piosmo At a time when Europe comes into the increased focus not only of Russia but also of China: as a battleground for great power competition, as a space relatively open for influence operations.
@piosmo Even those who disagree with this analysis can perhaps agree that a French Russia policy against Berlin and Warsaw has little or no chance to achieve its aims.
And that the China challenge is where Europe needs to stand together and urgently push back, defend vital interests.
And that the China challenge is where Europe needs to stand together and urgently push back, defend vital interests.
