Arc of crisis from Belarus to Libya: EU-Europe increasingly and systematically challenged by Putin’s Russia. The „eastern neighborhood“ question has merged with the „southern neighborhood“ question. Russia is increasing its influence and is stabilizing authoritarian rule.
The turning point was 2015 when Russia intervened militarily after Obama refused to back up his rhetoric on Syria with military action. That was Russia‘s entry point and moment into the Middle East competition.
Now Western failure to produce order in Libya, after the 2011 military intervention, has opened the door for Putin to extend Russian influence further West to North Africa, almost cost-free.
European powers have no idea how to deal with Russian advances. For decades the US has dealt with Moscow, containing its influence. France now wants to partner with Russia while Germany is undecided — sharing concerns of its eastern neighbors.
