MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment Recap as of 14Feb20 wk7 thread 1/n
rebound RiskOn week overall as credit-spreads continue to tighten, global rate cuts supportive and China supply chain paralyses doesn't raise too much concerns apparently as a lot of new 52wk highs show
rebound RiskOn week overall as credit-spreads continue to tighten, global rate cuts supportive and China supply chain paralyses doesn't raise too much concerns apparently as a lot of new 52wk highs show
2/n global markets YTD update shows it's a mixed picture between RiskOff / flight to safe haven as bonds doing well vs energy/metal sectors suffer but there is a flight to US
3/n update on momentum / trend / exhaustion scores as of wk7 : US tech sector seems the only investments... parabolic moves continue
4/n Coronavirus concern continues to disrupt, here: International Petroleum week in London also cancelled
5/n LME Asia event in HK also cancelled.
6/n supertanker shipping rates to China plunging
7/n China region airplane movements then and now
8/n Singapore Cargo ships piling up... [ well, I lived there for years, this sight is always similar tbh, but obviously now a special bottleneck ]
9/n for APAC Cruise ships operator an unexpected worry
10/n the "big 3" cruise operators Carnival, Royal Caribbean and Norwegian Cruises are betting on that region
11/n Hong Kong already suffer from decline tourism arrivals due to 2019 protests , now it hit rock bottom.
[ to be fair, HK GDP is the similar size as Denmark or Israel, but it is one of APAC important hubs ]
[ to be fair, HK GDP is the similar size as Denmark or Israel, but it is one of APAC important hubs ]
12/n AUD , NZD and THB are one of the worst affected FX in the region since the virus outbreak
13/n industrial commodities [ energy & metals ] since the outbreak ... although rebounding now
14/n flight to DM bonds same picture
15/n Australia trying to diversify the economy, still has a high dependency towards China... Manufacturing PMI just hit 4.5Y low, Construction is < 50 since 17M, RBA at unprecedented 1% and markets pricing another 25bp cut. No surprise AUD has been tanking
16/n New Zealand is not that different now, business confidence plunging as Australia & China slows down, yields and NZD Kiwi took a nosedive as the coronavirus started to spread. no surprise either, sadly
17/n despite recent rebounds in ESI,PMI,IFO,ZEW, global export champ Germany the posterchild: investors PAYING for the risk, GDP 0%, industrial production IT, DE, EZ horrific, and while having NIRP/QE ECB policy, a fiscal stimulus is needed, EUR is falling off the cliff
18/n in the US, everything is hanky-dory, low UE rate, low IR, tight credit spreads, good GDP, flight to US$ and US assets across stocks&bonds, FED 3x rate cuts questionable, and lagging JOLTS seems to roll over, but to early to say if UE & jobless claims do too
19/n NDX is on an absolute epic parabolic move and seems unstoppable ,like THIS is THE new safe haven tool...
20/n for sure, implied vola came back hard from the mini-inversion recently and reflects absolutely ZERO impact and concern about the second largest economy of the world China in near standstill.
21/n Crude & Brent plunged 20-25% recently, so , some say it's a mini tax-cut, but others say it reflects global growth concern... certainly disinflationary
22/n ... which can be seen in e.g. US10Y...
after breakout to the downside, currently in mini conolidation
after breakout to the downside, currently in mini conolidation
23/n or from the bond trading perspective ... e.g. UB ultra30s...
24/n but this is NOTHING to Greece BBB risk... absolutely incredible this is now <1% , gobsmacked and flabbergasted as the English would say.
25/n Greece is trading on par with Italy.
used to be 15% premium. 1500bp.
gone to zilch. AMAZING
used to be 15% premium. 1500bp.
gone to zilch. AMAZING
26/n oh, I almost forgot... while US is enjoying a 50-year low unemployment rate, stocks at ATH, GDP 2.3%, US$ DXY near 100, CPI 2.5%, consumer confidence strong, NFIB strong, permits strong...
the market is pricing in further RATE CUTS. because, why not ?
the market is pricing in further RATE CUTS. because, why not ?
27/n for the stock perma-bears... dont fight this , if it rolls over, you can jump on the train.
28/n for the swing traders... here is a good overview what to expect in normal times...
29/n last but not least ...5 for me too
30/end das war's wider mal !
hehe
take care
hehe
take care
@threadreaderapp unroll bitte danke
@threadreaderapp unroll please
