New No 10 account now tweeting straight at Barnier, over EU not offering UK same type of free trade agreement as Canada, as had been implied in his famous 2017 staircase slide...
...before mandates set, negotiations start, NI Joint Committee meets, common ground shrinking
...before mandates set, negotiations start, NI Joint Committee meets, common ground shrinking
most interesting thing here- what is this form of diplomacy trying to achieve?
-Change Barnier’s mind? It is right now EU27 shifting Commission draft mandate into even more dynamic alignment..
-Communicate strength to domestic voters? Then why ask.
-blame game for no trade deal?
-Change Barnier’s mind? It is right now EU27 shifting Commission draft mandate into even more dynamic alignment..
-Communicate strength to domestic voters? Then why ask.
-blame game for no trade deal?
“Canada-type” doing a lot of work here. Canada still has tariffs & quotas, will still do so on 1-2% of tariff lines even in 5 years.
Also 2017 context is a UK Gov pondering assoc customs union membership, refusing Irish Sea border, and seeking ways to maintain frictionless trade
Also 2017 context is a UK Gov pondering assoc customs union membership, refusing Irish Sea border, and seeking ways to maintain frictionless trade
What EU has done since new Johnson deal, is reinsert in its negotiating mandate Annex 4 binding Level Playing Field conditions, that were taken out when backstop removed. UK Govt IS committed to LPF with EU in deal, just not strongly enforceable one with EU law link...
At same time PM told EU that UK “will not agree to measures that go beyond those typically included in comp FTA” (WMS, R)
Which could be seen as regressing on PD (L) non regression to “maintain standards at current high levels.. rely on appropriate EU & international standards”
Which could be seen as regressing on PD (L) non regression to “maintain standards at current high levels.. rely on appropriate EU & international standards”
So deep in the weeds of this - you can see a route to a deal, through a level playing field that appears weak, but is strong. But can also see a route to a messy low level trade war style situation, where both sides try to use tariff threats & eg equivalence decisions as leverage
via slide:
UK: you agreed Canada-type FTA with limited, unenforceable Level Playing Field, & now rowing back.
EU: you agreed LPF, & we always said with 1000s trucks arriving from Dover daily, would be strong & you’re rowing back on non-regression agreed in Political Declaration
UK: you agreed Canada-type FTA with limited, unenforceable Level Playing Field, & now rowing back.
EU: you agreed LPF, & we always said with 1000s trucks arriving from Dover daily, would be strong & you’re rowing back on non-regression agreed in Political Declaration
boils down to replacement of the word “adequate” with “appropriate” in pol declaration re enforceability of LPF.
Remember leaked UK ”Economic Partnership Steering Group” memo claimed this as big negotiating win.
EU draft mandate now says adequate again
Remember leaked UK ”Economic Partnership Steering Group” memo claimed this as big negotiating win.
EU draft mandate now says adequate again
first slide below from EU presentation a year ago described strength of level playing field in May deal (backstop Annex 4).. 2nd slide describes how can kicked in to future dicusssions (EU) or weakened (UK).
Essentially 1st slide now back in draft EU mandate PLUS more on climate
Essentially 1st slide now back in draft EU mandate PLUS more on climate
