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PSA long said that No Deal would threaten its planned investment in new Astra at Ellesmere Port. Govt argues that No Deal not now possible after deal. But now the PSA boss Tavares confirms that the investment is on hold until he knows if there’s going to be tariffs...
Ie Number 10 might argue that after Withdrawal Deal done there is no such thing as No Deal... but in this significant example of inward investment it is whether we ultimately leave on WTO terms, whether you call that no deal or no trade deal, or Australia, that matters... /2
But this, I think, is new - a suggestion about compensation for tariffs... can’t see how that would be WTO compliant -
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
The logic of not moving to delay/ social distancing, and for example pre announcing but not enacting the notion of self isolation even for mild coughs etc is that behavioral scientists say the costs of going too early will mean people get bored and stop isolating later...
also timing effect from seasonal flu dying down, that Government calculates is material for a 10 day- two week holding off of bigger measures..

calculation must be that impact of people getting bored too early and confusion from seasonal flu worse than 2 week spread to thousands
call from Govt and its experts... that either Italy path won’t be followed, or -ves of this, less than flu/boredom impact

Italy 2 weeks ago (24/2): 219 cases, 5 deaths.
(UK now - 319 cases, 5 deaths)

Italy today: 7985 positive cases, 9172 total. 463 deaths. Country locked down.
Read 8 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Govt studying these weekend ideas carefully... suggests VAT cut if corona econ hit forecast to be well over 0.2% pencilled in by OECD. in past Chancellors gone for VAT cut because “timely, temporary & targeted”... if OECD right BoE cuts might be enough resolutionfoundation.org/publications/a…
The key issue is supply chain finance, obviously, and working capital through a quarantine period, and existing flexibility for banking system to support economy. This is Bank of England as well as Treasury issue.
Back on VAT - this is an interesting collection of cuts made to collection and some VAT rates around world as a response to coronavirus, cuts to main rate though, not typical: avalara.com/vatlive/en/vat…
Read 3 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Italy’s Deputy Economy Minister, Laura Castelli @LaCastelliM5s from the Five Star Movement saying decree tomorrow will suspend mortgages and taxes:
“ Mortgages suspended? Mortgages, taxes, everything is suspended.
But we need to look at the situation of the municipalities”
precedent for this in Italy in relation to earthquakes/ natural disasters, looks like it comes from agreement between central Government and banking sector. Can’t see that its ever been applied Italy-wide before. Big fiscal cost.

creditofondiario.eu/en/regulations…

cdp.it/sitointernet/p…
Ministers in Italy have also said they have asked for changes for six months to how Italian regulator treats problem loans in its banking sector
Read 6 tweets

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Xinqi Su 蘇昕琪
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#NOW outside TST pier and Harbour City, citizens and tourists are enjoying a colourful and festive Christmas Eve while a small group of riot police are guarding the Star Ferry’s exit
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Archismita
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#PSA #NRC #RT Something really disturbing happened today as I was landed in #India, coming back into #immigration. The official made small talk with me, as usual. Asked me, ‘So you’re from #Guwahati?’ I said yes. He asked me if my name had come in the #NRClist (1/n)
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ZoologiMY
@ZoologiMY
#PSA The team of IOES UM have spotted the presence of potentially venomous jellyfish (hydrozoan) along the shore of Bachok, Kelantan. Avoid to have direct skin contact with this animal. Please be careful if you’re near the beach.
It could be the blue bottle or Indo-Pacific Portuguese man-of-war, is a marine hydrozoan of the order Siphonophora found in the Indian and Pacific Oceans.
Normally, this species might be stranded on beaches, where their toxic nematocysts can remain potent for weeks in moist conditions. Its long tentacles deliver a painful sting, which is venomous & powerful enough to kill fish. So, kau kena sengat memang sakit ye kawan2. Be careful
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That Goan Boy
@schmmuck
#PSA - The Amazon Great Indian sale starts at 12noon today for Prime Members - amzn.to/2zZycow
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G. Elliott Morris📈🤷‍♂️
@gelliottmorris
#New PA cong. map increases D chance of winning the House majority by 4%. They only need a 6.8% generic ballot margin now (down from 7.7) to be favored.

Diff. will be closer to 10% in Nov when uncertainty from polls is ⬇️. Redraw is a very big deal.

One major reason the new PA map is such a big gain for Democrats is that it solidifies, not just tips, PA districts in Philly burbs. Also creates one additional vulnerable R district. (Easily seen in this map made by @JMilesColeman)
My forecasting model will have new PA map in the near future. This is not just a simple switch; it’s a coding redesign, restructuring of input, & drawing new geographic files. Takes a while (for me, a student).

In the meantime, just add 3-4% to the model: bit.ly/2018_house
Read 4 tweets

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