I think this is largely true, but I also think some affluent voters who are tempted to pick Trump over Bernie will feel a little embarrassed/ashamed about it and won’t shout their intentions from the hilltops as Bernie-or-Busters do.
Assuming broad economic stability between now and Nov (Coronavirus could change this though I wouldn’t bet on it yet) Bernie gives Trump the opportunity to run as the candidate of stability and continuity in good times. Not sure it will work or Trump will stay on message...
But I think there are a material number of voters who picked Clinton in 2016 because they wanted stability and normalcy who could decide Trump is now the better bet for that.
Of course, Bernie stands to pick up some voters who picked Trump in 2016 because they wanted change / didn’t like “the system”
Anyway the people who are most agitated about Bernie winning the nomination now (highly partisan Democrats upset about change in the party but unwilling ever to vote for Trump) are not the actual voters on the margin.
The final thing I’d note is that, like a lot of people in the media, I’m overexposed to Romney-Clinton voters and underexposed to Obama-Trump voters. This caused lots of us to misunderstand 2016. Any counterswings in our circles also likely to be unrepresentative in size.
