“We are at a turning point in the Covid-19 epidemic” Lawrence Gostin, a global health law prof, Georgetown Uni. “We must prepare for the foreseeable possibility, even probability, that Covid-19 may soon become a pandemic affecting countries/all continents” vox.com/2020/2/23/2114…
The identified cases OUTSIDE of China have risen a lot in the last week
1300 last week. 1800 this week and rising.
And many cases cannot be traced to a source, suggesting there are more unidentifed
Yet it has spread like wildfire in cruise ship/ prison contained environments.
1300 last week. 1800 this week and rising.
And many cases cannot be traced to a source, suggesting there are more unidentifed
Yet it has spread like wildfire in cruise ship/ prison contained environments.
The infection rate on the cruise ship seems to be c. 17.5% which is MUCH higher than the 2.3% the Chinese official data reveals.
So the contained conditions increases infection rates. But because proper quarantine protocols were not followed passengers released tested positive
So the contained conditions increases infection rates. But because proper quarantine protocols were not followed passengers released tested positive
SOUTH KOREA has identified a large group infected. Only 30 on Monday, by today 602, many linked to a secret religious group.
It was IRAN that had me on full alert. As of last night just 29 cases identified but 6 people died. That is a 20% fatality rate. Far higher than China.
How many more have the virus but are not identified. Spreading it ever further?
How many more have the virus but are not identified. Spreading it ever further?
ITALY had 132 confirmed cases and at least 2 deaths.
Authorities are trying to contain it to the North but tracing the source of ingress is a problem.
Who else has the infection and has unknowingly passed it on?
Authorities are trying to contain it to the North but tracing the source of ingress is a problem.
Who else has the infection and has unknowingly passed it on?
So what have we learned and why are officials considering it may be difficult to prevent a pandemic.
1/. It is both very contagious and it seems possible for a person to pass on infection before that person or the next, or next or next, knows they were infected or symptomatic.
1/. It is both very contagious and it seems possible for a person to pass on infection before that person or the next, or next or next, knows they were infected or symptomatic.
2/. It now looks as if the infection cannot be tracked simply by identifying people who have travelled from or been in contact with people coming from China or the Hubei province.
3/. The ‘flu season is already under way. How to distinguish #Covid_19 from other strains?
3/. The ‘flu season is already under way. How to distinguish #Covid_19 from other strains?
4/. What about a new outbreak in China? Eg. What if the 14 day quarantine turns out not to be long enough?
5/ systematic identification and testing has only got up and running rather late in the day in many places - including in the US, not helped by Trump’s dismantling of PH
5/ systematic identification and testing has only got up and running rather late in the day in many places - including in the US, not helped by Trump’s dismantling of PH
Only two countries in Africa, Senegal and a South Africa, had adequate testing resource.
There is concern in particular about fragile states unleash undergoing political violence or poor Government.
Poor Syria, DR of Congo, Yemen, Afghanistan
There is concern in particular about fragile states unleash undergoing political violence or poor Government.
Poor Syria, DR of Congo, Yemen, Afghanistan
Some have very poor health systems and infrastructure such as sub- Saharan Africa.
At a 2.3% mortality rate indicated from the Chinese data (much higher in the elderly) that would still be more than 20 times higher than a bad flu year (0.1%)
At a 2.3% mortality rate indicated from the Chinese data (much higher in the elderly) that would still be more than 20 times higher than a bad flu year (0.1%)
If the 5-10% suggested from the Chinese data are in need ICU care that could overwhelm healthcare
Think of the crisis we are already facing in the NHS.
At least we have strong Public Health systems & protocols
Many countries will not have the beds, equipment or qualified staff.
Think of the crisis we are already facing in the NHS.
At least we have strong Public Health systems & protocols
Many countries will not have the beds, equipment or qualified staff.
@CoppetainPU has provided this WHO updated data which seems to suggest the concern for non China attributable outbreaks is more marked.
I’ve turned South Korea in the 4th tweet, but did not refer to the death rate there as I understood there were new reports.
Of the 602 reported cases, 6 fatalities have been reported - so 1%. BUT 3 were reported today.
That is a marked uptick.
Of the 602 reported cases, 6 fatalities have been reported - so 1%. BUT 3 were reported today.
That is a marked uptick.
It seems there is a ? about whether a visit to Israel may have been a common factor in the group associated with a religious sect that accounts for half the infections.
reuters.com/article/us-chi…
reuters.com/article/us-chi…
@skynews
“Passengers repatriated from the Diamond Princess were NOT all confirmed as testing -tive for COVID-19
They underwent 'full infectious disease risk assessments' but now 4 tests taken in 🇯🇵 have come back as +ve (patients now in UK)
“Indefensible" says Prof Paul Hunter
“Passengers repatriated from the Diamond Princess were NOT all confirmed as testing -tive for COVID-19
They underwent 'full infectious disease risk assessments' but now 4 tests taken in 🇯🇵 have come back as +ve (patients now in UK)
“Indefensible" says Prof Paul Hunter
See my earlier tweet about the dismantling of PH by Trump. Turns out they have not even got anyone one in the White House tasked specifically to oversee a coordinated government-wide response in the event of a pandemic,
That’s pretty shocking.
That’s pretty shocking.
I would say that markedly increases the risk of poor infection tracking and management.
“Both the structure and institutional memory is gone now”
“Both the structure and institutional memory is gone now”
763 and 7 dear in S Korea. That is a big leap in a day. C. 160 more cases since my earlier tweet today
I think 5 of the deaths were reported today.
I think 5 of the deaths were reported today.
