Good morning - cloudy day but plenty of market optimism on coordinated response. That said, Fed exps curbed back to -96bps in 1yr vs -122bps yesterday.
Today: RBA & BNM decision!!! BNM easier as markets call for 25bps cut (me too) as political limbo calls for monetary help. 🇲🇾✂️
Today: RBA & BNM decision!!! BNM easier as markets call for 25bps cut (me too) as political limbo calls for monetary help. 🇲🇾✂️
Talked about Malaysia GDP expectations there: we think GDP will slow to 3.6% from an already 10-yr low of 4.3% in 2019 on the political limbo limiting space to limit the fall-out of the demand & supply shocks of the virus 🇲🇾✂️🕊️✂️:
Korea revised Q4 GDP upward on better construction but GDP still rather weak in 2019 & 2020 is going to be WORSE as external & domestic demand & supply shocks strong
We expect GDP to decelerate to 1.1% for SK & u can see that in Feb core CPI slowing to 0.6% from 0.9% & BOK'll ✂️
We expect GDP to decelerate to 1.1% for SK & u can see that in Feb core CPI slowing to 0.6% from 0.9% & BOK'll ✂️
Slowing of both headline & core CPI show that the corona virus is hitting consumption hard - key for South Korea growth & already weak before on labor market woes
The coronavirus is infecting Korean growth engines rapidly - requiring more help & diversification of supply chain👇🏻
The coronavirus is infecting Korean growth engines rapidly - requiring more help & diversification of supply chain👇🏻
Australia decision is a big one today & totally mixed in terms of expectations. Look at AUD: biggest loser of Asian FX & lost already -7.2% vs USD.
On the other hand, AUD assets on SALE!!! 🤗🦘🇦🇺🌏
On the other hand, AUD assets on SALE!!! 🤗🦘🇦🇺🌏
RBA in 30mins. I'm kind of excited about this 1 b/c people are so mixed about it & AUD so weak already but look at the economic data. Building approvals are le low....
Btw, AUD defying strong FX vs USD trends on today (MYR too for diff reasons) & partly b/c Morrison was like:
Govt & RBA highly aligned on economic response.
HIGHLY ALIGNED!!!
Govt & RBA highly aligned on economic response.
HIGHLY ALIGNED!!!
Btw, if u look at concensus on Bbg then it shows 0.63% - that is the median. And if the median is that & the forecasts are either 0.75% or 0.5% then that means we got a MIXED BAG.
So money market calls for cuts & economists are divided on hold or cut. We find out in 10mins!
So money market calls for cuts & economists are divided on hold or cut. We find out in 10mins!
Note that NO ONE is expecting -50bps & it's either -25bps or a hold. The 0.63% is just saying that we got an equally divided consensus here skewing towards cut...
