Thread by @Trinhnomics

Today’s Bloomberg interview: Part 1. Impact of China on Asia

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Part 2. Policy response 👇🏻👇🏻

Part 2 continues...

Part 3. Hong Kong retail sales got 2 problems - global & local 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻

Global: Not much tourism happening given the corona virus spread
Local: Not much local appetite

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Part 4. Malaysia political limbo & how that limits its ability to manoeuvre to limit the economic fall-out & hence GDP will slow 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻

OECD: Global economy may SHRINK this quarter. Global GDP cuts to 2.4% from 2.9%

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Shrinkageeeeee

The OECD is slashing China & India GDP growth by a lot vs their forecasts in November 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻😬👇🏻

In its best-case scenario:

The OECD forecasts that China’s economy will grow by 4.9% this year, down from its previous projection of 5.7%.

The global economy would grow by 2.4%, a weaker performance than the 2.9% expansion projected before the viral outbreak.

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Look at their slashing of China to below 5% but somehow Germany in tact & Korea still 2% 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻

Shocks: SUPPLY & DEMAND

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Shocks: China bigger in terms of its role in global demand & supply. Look at China demand for major commodities:

China demand shocks: -0.5% of global GDP

If this spreads (obviously it has spread to South Korea & Italy & beyond), then it is -1.5% to global growth:

And the confidence channel to financial stress:

Completely agree w/ the OECD - markets & govs wayy too sanguine on counting the costs (said that in the interview):

Omgosh the key messages are like my thread & TV interview: PEOPLE FORGET THAT THIS VIRUS IS HITTING PEOPLE & w/o people interacting in economic activities u don't have growth!

I said it here: risks underestimated 👇🏻& this virus is hitting an essential input to growth - labor & people!!!

Can download the PPT on this website - many great charts!!!! My fav is below on China's rising role in the world (& btw the dependence goes both ways, ur higher dependency on Chinese supply & demand of goods & services = HIGHER EXPOSURE ON THE WAY DOWN)

oecd.org/economic-outlo…

Also like this one as it talks about supply chain risks (my bread and butter & thread above) & the sectors at risk (electronics, machinery)

I think it can be presented a bit better w/ flags in the circle to show diff of countries etc...