Thread by @fascinatorfun

Someone has just said to me (to demonstrate that #COVID19 is not too bad) that only 1 in a hundred is expected to die.

When I pointed out that this would be 1500 in a town the size of Cheltenham, and that all these likely would have needed ICU care beforehand.

She got it then

I then pointed out that in China they found that 5%+ needed ICU care.

That is 5750 patients in ICU and some maybe for some time.

And then there are those who are seriously ill, but not yet critical.

I don’t know how many ECMO beds they have in Cheltenham.

Not enough for that

Of course that is why the NHS is urgently trying to ensure containment and delay because that spreads the load on the NHS.

Make the curve flatter.

Now. We started calculating what the risk would be in different circumstances. If they can slow it down enough there may only be a low - medium pandemic.

So maybe 40-60% of the population infected. (If most serious then that is nearly everyone).

Even that would mean 2300 beds - 3450 beds.

You can see why they would want to delay as much as possible.

Even half those numbers would be exceptionally challenging.

Especially as it is hazmat suited nursing

There was something about working through the numbers together and then trying to work out how the NHS COULD deal with it that made it feel real.

It is hard to find out what messages connect well.