1/. Some people on Twitter & in the media yesterday here and in the USA saying that Governments should be taking “draconian” measures because it is only a few cases and it is just bad flu.
It isn’t flu at all.
Italy
On 2/2/20 : 2 cases. No deaths
7/7/20: 3 cases 3 deaths
It isn’t flu at all.
Italy
On 2/2/20 : 2 cases. No deaths
7/7/20: 3 cases 3 deaths
2/. It stayed that way until the 19th February when slowly at first but then gradually the numbers started to climb with a lot of people hospitalised.
That was just 2.5 weeks ago.
That was just 2.5 weeks ago.
We are just 5 days into March.
At 10 am 1st March (WHO data). Italy had 1129 cases and 29 deaths (and a lot of very sick people in hospital). This despite closing down towns, many public spaces
In 11 days
Cases had increased 376 fold
Deaths had increased 10 fold
At 10 am 1st March (WHO data). Italy had 1129 cases and 29 deaths (and a lot of very sick people in hospital). This despite closing down towns, many public spaces
In 11 days
Cases had increased 376 fold
Deaths had increased 10 fold
At 10 am on Monday - 2nd March
Cases had increased to 1689
Deaths had increased to 35
A lot of sick people still in hospital. Now start imagining the pressure on you local ICU units as these are clustering
The pressure on the staff & their ability to give devoted attention
Cases had increased to 1689
Deaths had increased to 35
A lot of sick people still in hospital. Now start imagining the pressure on you local ICU units as these are clustering
The pressure on the staff & their ability to give devoted attention
10 am Tuesday 3rd March
2036 cases - (347 new)
52 deaths - ( 17 new)
Still a lot of sick people in ICU.
2036 cases - (347 new)
52 deaths - ( 17 new)
Still a lot of sick people in ICU.
10 am Wednesday 4th March. Yesterday
2502 cases (466 new)
80 deaths (28 new)
Imagine how the medical personnel are feeling.
Imagine those who live nearby
The accumulation of loss of loved ones
2502 cases (466 new)
80 deaths (28 new)
Imagine how the medical personnel are feeling.
Imagine those who live nearby
The accumulation of loss of loved ones
Thursday (today). WHO report won’t appear until c 10 pm but this site tallies reliably with the WHO.
Cases 3089 (587 new)
Deaths 107 (27 new)
There were 297 patients in a “serious” condition as well.
Cases 3089 (587 new)
Deaths 107 (27 new)
There were 297 patients in a “serious” condition as well.
So stand back for a minute.
On the 2nd of February, just over a month ago they had 2 cases & no deaths.
Today that has increased 1544 fold
Deaths have increased 107 fold.
In just 5 days cases have nearly increased 3 fold
Deaths 3.6 fold.
And nearly 300 v sick people
On the 2nd of February, just over a month ago they had 2 cases & no deaths.
Today that has increased 1544 fold
Deaths have increased 107 fold.
In just 5 days cases have nearly increased 3 fold
Deaths 3.6 fold.
And nearly 300 v sick people
That is why the NHS and Public Health England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are trying so hard to contain the outbreak.
No reason to think that pattern of exponential growth is going to stop any time soon in Italy. It is the same virus.
No reason to think that pattern of exponential growth is going to stop any time soon in Italy. It is the same virus.
Scientists need time to see if there are variants. They need time to find out if it mutates and how.
Does it weaken?
Does it strengthen?
There is reason to think it can rebound, or maybe lies dormant from cases in both Japan and Italy.
Example
scmp.com/news/china/soc…
Does it weaken?
Does it strengthen?
There is reason to think it can rebound, or maybe lies dormant from cases in both Japan and Italy.
Example
scmp.com/news/china/soc…
This is not “alarmist”. This is fact.
And the way Governments, Health Services and citizens around the world respond will likely determine whether an outbreak is contained and therefore manageable or something much worse.
And the way Governments, Health Services and citizens around the world respond will likely determine whether an outbreak is contained and therefore manageable or something much worse.
England population of c 54 mill
Hubei Province 59 mill
The UK 66.64 mill
The tale of two Chinas.
Hubei 67466 cases, 2902 deaths (with 5788 patients in a serious condition) - 4.3% mortality
China minus Hubei. 12943 cases, 110 deaths - 0.85% mortality.
Hubei Province 59 mill
The UK 66.64 mill
The tale of two Chinas.
Hubei 67466 cases, 2902 deaths (with 5788 patients in a serious condition) - 4.3% mortality
China minus Hubei. 12943 cases, 110 deaths - 0.85% mortality.
Look at an experiment that @FryRsquared did in 2018 that showed what hand washing can achieve in reducing risk
Wash hands with what? (And I wash the soap bottle at the same time half way through!)
So let’s all wash our hands thoroughly 5 or 6 times a day.
Clean your mobile phone and smart pads. Handles on doors and cupboard
If not for yourself then, as this Scientific American article suggests, do it because it is the most pro social altruistic thing to do.
Clean your mobile phone and smart pads. Handles on doors and cupboard
If not for yourself then, as this Scientific American article suggests, do it because it is the most pro social altruistic thing to do.
Do it for your elderly neighbour, the mother with a compromised immune system, the father with diabetes, to keep our nurses, doctors and health workers well.
