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A recent paper claims that #SARSCoV2 split into L and S strains with L leading to more severe #COVID19. This is most likely a statistical artifact due to intense early sampling of the "L" group in Wuhan, resulting in higher apparent CFR in this group. [1/3]
#SARSCoV2 genomes are sampled extremely heterogeneously in time and space. Rapidly growing local outbreaks get sampled intensively and result in overrepresentation of some variants. This happened early on around the Wuhan Seafood market and now with the Italian outbreak. [2/3]
Any statistical inference needs to account for such sampling biases and just taking values at face values will result in wrong, misleading, or downright dangerous inferences. [3/3]
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Richard Neher
@richardneher
There as been a lot of talk on whether spring will stop #SARSCoV2 #COVID19 (probably not). We (me, @robert_dyrdak Valentin D, @firefoxx66, @Jan_Albert_) used data on endemic CoVs to estimate seasonal forcing and its impact on a potential pandemic. [1/9]
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
CoVs causing common cold show a pronounced seasonality in Sweden with about 10-fold higher fraction of positive tests in winter than in summer (similar to influenza and CoV data reported for other countries.) [2/9]
These data constrain the parameters of SIR models but different combinations of forcing and migration rates are compatible with the data. We believe a scenario with rapid exchange of viruses between regions and strong seasonal forcing is more plausible. [3/9]
Read 9 tweets
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Richard Neher
@richardneher
Here are my latest graphs of #nCov case and fatality counts from globalcitizen's aggregated data. The doubling time of case counts has increased to about 6 days. But be aware that labs might reach testing capacity limits in the most affected areas. [1/6]
We don't see a similarly pronounced deceleration in the number of fatalities. Fatalities are expected to lag behind case counts, so this is not unexpected. [2/6]
The number of exported show a pronounced drop in their growth rate late January around that time we expect international air traffic from China to have dropped substantially. [3/6]
Read 6 tweets

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Kai Kupferschmidt
@kakape
“Today is my birthday and I have been given a good gift from DRC”, says @drtedros: 2 weeks with no #Ebola case. No Ebola patient in treatment. Good news for the whole world, he says.
“But as one epidemic looks like ending… another is becoming increasingly complex”: #covid19
@DrTedros New numbers first:

Global total:
90893 cases
3110 deaths

New cases in past 24 hours:
China: 129 cases
Rest of the world: 1848 cases
(80% of those are from South Korea, Iran and Italy)

12 new countries have reported their first #covid 19 case.
@DrTedros Important statement now on asymptomatic #covid19 cases:
Evidence from China: "only 1% of reported #COVID19 cases do not have symptoms and most of those cases develop symptoms within 2 days”, says @DrTedros. Countries like Singapore also found few asymptomatic cases, he says.
Read 15 tweets
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Dr. Mike Mendoza
@DrMikeMendoza
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) are actions, apart from vaccines and taking medicine, that people and communities can take to help slow the spread of illnesses. Practicing NPIs now will ⬇️ the spread of flu and will prepare us for #COVID #Preparedness #NPIs

Thread: (1/8)
Perhaps the most important NPIs are the ones we can practice in our own homes. (2/8)

cdc.gov/nonpharmaceuti…
Workplace and business leaders have a role too. Although this site describes flu prevention, NPIs are important for other illnesses, including COVID-19 (3/8)

cdc.gov/nonpharmaceuti…
Read 8 tweets
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Ed Belongia MD
@EdBelongia
1/Epi studies show striking age differences in #COVID19 cases. In China, only 2% are <20 yrs old (Wu, JAMA). Relative risk is much higher above 30 (Sun, LancetDigHealth). It's likely kids are infected but have mild or no symptoms. We need more data from outside China to confirm.
2/Why are #COVID cases detected more often in adults? Older adults have higher risk due to frailty and aging immune system. But this does not explain increased risk across all adult age groups vs children. One possible explanation might be antibody dependent enhancement (ADE).
3/Dengue #virus is a good example of ADE. There are 4 dengue serotypes, and infection generates protection only against the same serotype (no cross-protection). Later infection with a different serotype is a risk factor for more severe disease: dengue hemorrhagic fever.
Read 8 tweets
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dave christie
@bagheera79
ESICM live webinar on #COVIDー19 starting right now
Prof Bin Du Chinese CCM will be updating, Webinar chaired by ESICM President Dr Kesecioglu
Initial impression from Italy are the same as China - age and co-morbidity are the most likely to experience severe disease
Read 13 tweets
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• Asmaa #Kashmir •
@ALadyInKuwait
This thread is on the #Seerah of Messenger of Allah ﷺ.

To join the channel: t.me/TheFinalMessen…
The Life of Prophet Muhammad ﷺ from beginning till the end:

§ Abdullah Bin Abdul-Muttalib married Aminah Bint Wahb and she bore him a son.

§ Abdullah passed away while Aminah was 2 months pregnant.
§ Abdullah left behind an inheritance for his unborn child: 5 camels, some sheep, and an Ethiopian woman servant whose name was Barakah, also known as Umm Ayman.
Read 147 tweets
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Lauren S. Camera
@laurenonthehill
Good morning. Big day for folks who follow education politics and policy. We have DeVos testifying before the House Ed Labor Cmte regarding the administration's ed priorities, which is sure to be a bit contentious. AND Sens. Alexander and Murray will hold another #HEA hearing.
You can watch DeVos here:
You can watch the Senate higher education hearing here: help.senate.gov/hearings/reaut…
Read 109 tweets

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