So now that is basically Biden vs Sanders, here a couple quick probability guesses:
1. 85%: Trump beats Sanders in the Electoral College
2. 60%: Trump beats Sanders in the popular vote
1) would obviously be a disaster, but 2) would be even worse, as it would be the GOP's /1
1. 85%: Trump beats Sanders in the Electoral College
2. 60%: Trump beats Sanders in the popular vote
1) would obviously be a disaster, but 2) would be even worse, as it would be the GOP's /1
only popular vote victory since 1988 (bar 2004). That would be huge: it would massive bolster Trumpism's already strong position in the GOP by suggesting it is in fact a majoritarian strategy and not just reliant on the EC and voter suppression. The racism, authoritarianism, /2
and clownishness of the first term would get even worse. I'll vote for whoever the Democrat is, obviously; Trump is a constitutional emergency, and Sanders is infinitely superior. But it should also be pretty clear after Sander's so/so Super Tuesday performance,that Biden is a /3
lot more likely to beat Trump. So yeah, having a two-party system sucks, and Biden's not a great candidate. But Duverger's Law (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duverger%…) is what it is. If you don't choose Biden in a two-person race, it's another 4 years of Trump. That's all that matters now. END
