[THREAD] Soybean futures, Solidere shares and the #FourthTurning: Lebanon’s crisis from a historical and demographic perspective 
1. In #Lebanon these days, it’s easy to get lost in the minutae of daily developments, from what a minister said to eurobond this and capital control that.
2. These events are at the core of people’s daily lives, but how do they fit within the bigger picture, in the larger story being written?
3. Lebanon is a small country with many external economic and political dependencies in the midst of a globalised world.
4. Not exactly a macroeconomic/geopolitical trend setter, but rather (despite what the navel gazers would have you believe) a small player in the so-called “game of nations”.
5. In other words, a country which will ultimately be more in a position of reacting to, rather than defining, major future global events.
6. And so it is useful to look at Lebanon within a larger framework. One such framework is the Strauss-Howe generational theory, developed by William Strauss and Neil Howe.
7. THE STRAUSS-HOWE GENERATIONAL THEORY: A BRIEF OVERVIEW
Turnings
Very much an Anglo-American centric theory, the Strauss-Howe generational thesis is nonetheless a useful framework in today’s highly connected world where the United States plays a major role in global affairs.
Turnings
Very much an Anglo-American centric theory, the Strauss-Howe generational thesis is nonetheless a useful framework in today’s highly connected world where the United States plays a major role in global affairs.
8. Below is an overview of this theory, with practical examples from the current cycle and the end of the previous one:
9.
• There are patterns in American history that repeat themselves; these patterns take the form of 80-100 year cycles (each termed a “saeculum”), divided into four eras, or “turnings”, each lasting 20-25 years. This goes back to the 1600s.
• There are patterns in American history that repeat themselves; these patterns take the form of 80-100 year cycles (each termed a “saeculum”), divided into four eras, or “turnings”, each lasting 20-25 years. This goes back to the 1600s.
10.
• The first turning: a “high” is characterised by strong institutions and weak individualism. The most recent example being the 1946-1963 American high, ending with the assassination of John F. Kennedy
• The first turning: a “high” is characterised by strong institutions and weak individualism. The most recent example being the 1946-1963 American high, ending with the assassination of John F. Kennedy
11.
• The second turning: an “awakening” - institutions attacked in the name of personal and spiritual autonomy, rising individualism. Most recent example: the “consciousness revolution”, 1964-c.1980
• The second turning: an “awakening” - institutions attacked in the name of personal and spiritual autonomy, rising individualism. Most recent example: the “consciousness revolution”, 1964-c.1980
12.
• The third turning: an “unraveling” - institutions weak/distrusted, individualism strong and flourishing (“there is no such thing as society”, said Margaret Thatcher). Most recent example: The economic boom and culture wars, c.1980-2008
• The third turning: an “unraveling” - institutions weak/distrusted, individualism strong and flourishing (“there is no such thing as society”, said Margaret Thatcher). Most recent example: The economic boom and culture wars, c.1980-2008
13.
• The #FourthTurning: a “crisis” (2008-??), which we currently find ourselves in. Institutions are torn down and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat and there is a rising sense of community. The resolution of the crisis sets the stage for the next 80-100 years.
• The #FourthTurning: a “crisis” (2008-??), which we currently find ourselves in. Institutions are torn down and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat and there is a rising sense of community. The resolution of the crisis sets the stage for the next 80-100 years.
14. The previous fourth turning started with the 1929 stock market crash and ended with World War II, giving us institutions such as the UN, the IMF, Bretton Woods, etc. which to this day remain at the centre of the global order.
15. Neil Howe compellingly argues that the era we are in right now most resembles the 1930s. Major events and trends leading up to and in the 30s : the 1929 Wall Street crash, economic crisis/depression, rising inequality and nationalism. Sound familiar?
16. Generations and Archetypes
Depending on which point in the cycle you are born, in other words to which generation you belong, you might develop certain characteristics and attitudes, or “archetypes”.
Depending on which point in the cycle you are born, in other words to which generation you belong, you might develop certain characteristics and attitudes, or “archetypes”.
17. Each turning is defined by the generation that comes of age during that period, and the relationship between what happens in a turning and how people behave is a dynamic one: Generational archetypes are shaped by historical events and vice versa.
18. We will look at two generations defining today’s events and some of their key characteristics in more detail: The #BabyBoomers (born 1943-1960) and the #Millennials (born 1982-2004).
19. Baby boomers are of the “prophet” archetype, coming of age as the “narcissistic young crusaders of the awakening, [who] become moralistic mid-lifers […]”
20. #GeorgeCarlin (RIP) offers us a brilliant hyperbolic critique of baby boomers in his unique style (“… and soybean futures! soybean futures!”) (warning: strong language) #OKboomer
22. WHERE DOES LEBANON FIT?
The 50s and 60s were very much a Lebanese high as well (albeit not for everyone), which extended into the early 70s.
The 50s and 60s were very much a Lebanese high as well (albeit not for everyone), which extended into the early 70s.
23. The civil war upended the country, and Lebanon’s second republic emerged halfway through the third turning, a period associated with maximum individualism and eroded institutions.
24. Political structures tend to have a long shelf life, and it is during that period that the seeds of today’s Lebanese crisis were sown.
26. Millennials come of age while their boomer parents are going through their moralistic mid-life phase.
27. Themes of getting a formal education, ensuring affluence and job safety/stability, marriage/children, etc. will be familiar to Lebanese millennials in conversations with their moms and dads (as surely also occurs in other societies).
28. Fast forward to 2008 and the global financial crisis. With a few years of lag Lebanon also found itself in the midst of an increasingly acute crisis, culminating in the events of late 2019 and early 2020.
29. In many ways today’s Lebanese so-called revolution (time will tell whether that term is appropriate) is a clash between baby boomers and millennials, with latter leading the movement while the former are generally more reticent at challenging the established order.
30. WHAT’S NEXT?
The Strauss-Howe theory predicts hard times ahead, but also a resolution. As Neil Howe puts it, fourth turnings are necessary “just like winter is necessary”…
The Strauss-Howe theory predicts hard times ahead, but also a resolution. As Neil Howe puts it, fourth turnings are necessary “just like winter is necessary”…
31.
… to “clean out the debris […] everything that’s sclerotic and ossified that no longer functions. Something which tilts the whole playing field of power and wealth from the old back to the young. […] the price we must pay for a new golden age.”
… to “clean out the debris […] everything that’s sclerotic and ossified that no longer functions. Something which tilts the whole playing field of power and wealth from the old back to the young. […] the price we must pay for a new golden age.”
32. So Strauss-Howe predicts the period we are in as a time of great change. The post world war II global geopolitical and economic order, from the IMF/World Bank to the post-Nixon shock Bretton Woods system (it’s #AllAboutTheDollar) and everything in between.
33. Presumably all of that is in play according to Strauss-Howe, and it’s become increasingly hard to disagree.
34. What will a potential new system look like? Time will tell, but themes like climate/environment, economic resource allocation/distribution, international monetary settlement and of course global security are likely to be at the centre of debate and action.
35. If some or all of this indeed happens, how will Lebanon navigate this period, and where will it end up on the other side? An institutional change in Lebanon is not only desirable, but a necessary (although insufficient) condition to achieve a decent future for its citizens.
36. Any solution not involving the above is certain to perpetuate the severe dysfunction of the Lebanese state and all the short, medium and long-term negative outcomes that come with it, of which today’s events are the latest, very painful example.
37. Literally a once in a lifetime opportunity, this moment requires that a people coalesce and shape Lebanese history in a manner that ensures the root causes of their longstanding dissatisfaction are eliminated…
38.
… and replaced with a viable political structure that caters to the country’s specificities. Of course a change is not helpful if it is not a “right” change.
… and replaced with a viable political structure that caters to the country’s specificities. Of course a change is not helpful if it is not a “right” change.
39. The Lebanese historical record of self-government is mixed, and a general inability to unite has resulted in patchwork, neither-here-nor-there solutions throughout the decades, for which a heavy price continues to be paid.
40. Will the Lebanese millennials and their compatriots rise to the occasion?
41. Following his rant on baby boomers, George continues: “… maybe it’s not the politicians who suck. Maybe somethin’ else sucks around here. Like… The public”. (warning: strong language)
42. Whether that is true of the Lebanese public is for the Lebanese public to collectively determine. [END]
Much of the info above on the Strauss-Howe theory is from this video, which both provides greater detail & is an excellent summary. I also recommend following the insightful Neil Howe (@HoweGeneration) & reading his & Bill Strauss' book, The Fourth Turning
