Thread by @elinaribakova

A fantastic book from @voxeu on #COVID19 put together by @BaldwinRE and @bweder with chapters by my former colleagues @Bruegel_org @GuntramWolff

https://twitter.com/BCoeure/status/1235987312594608128

1/

First, this is unique shock. The share of the global economies affected is unprecedented @LauBooneEco @OECD_Stat

2/

Largest economies highly integrated into global trade and markets.

3/

All of the counties affected so far are highly integrated into global value chains.

4/

As a result downside risks are significant. More here @OECD oecd.org/economic-outlo…

5/

Manufacturing sector already in recession or near recession gets a triple hit.

6/

What are the channel of global contagion from #COVID19 via cross border flows:

• goods,
• services,
• knowhow,
• people,
• financial capital,
• foreign direct investment,
• international banking, and
• exchange rates.

7/

And capital flows are already not looking good @IIF @econchart @BHilgenstockIIF our daily tracker is close to the worst of the global financial crisis.

8/

There is a risk of straight line forecasting.

9/

What can we do?

• Both monetary policy and fiscal policy, and clearly the most effective action would be an internationally coordinated one. Emergency Fed rate cut has not made the situation easier.

Menu of policy responses below

10/

I think #G20 was a missed opportunity

https://twitter.com/elinaribakova/status/1234725893412618241?s=21

It was before #COVID19 emergency sank in.

11/

And to end my summary of and commentary on this great paper on a more cheerful note, the authors’ perspective on #Plague and #Ebola

It is not as bad