Thread by @GidMK

There are a lot of panic-inducing threads out there about #COVID2019 and the #coronavirus that are going viral, so I thought I'd put together some much more reassuring facts for you to all think about

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FACT 1: By every indication, #COVID19 responds extremely well to public health measures such as social distancing and quarantining

This new paper from Wuhan found that the reproduction rate (how many people each sick person goes on to infect) dropped from nearly 4 at the start of the epidemic to only 0.3 once measures were put in place medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

FACT 2: The virus is likely to be significantly less deadly than our current estimates suggest

The problem here is that our current estimates are based on CONFIRMED cases. From that, the WHO has announced that the case-fatality ratio currently stands at 3%, meaning 3% of people who get the disease die

HOWEVER, most experts agree that there are a lot of people who get only very mildly sick from #COVID2019, never get tested, and so don't contribute to our case-fatality ratio

One paper estimates this is up to 80% (!) of all cases

FACT 3: The TRUE case-fatality rate is likely to be between 0.3-1% (this is still high!)

This is an estimate from the journal Lancet in the UK, and is echoed by a number of other publications

FACT 4: THE GROWTH OF #COVID19 IS NOT EXPONENTIAL

Outbreaks of infectious disease usually start with an exponential growth curve but then flatten off

In the case of #COVID2019, you can see the actual vs predicted numbers based on exponential growth in these graphs

This is in large part due to public health measures, which is why you should LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL HEALTH AUTHORITY

Keep an eye on the news

Be prepared to take action

FACT 5: Children are not severely impacted by the disease

Very few children have died, and mostly kids experience only very mild symptoms

The biggest issue with children is that they do get infected, so there are worries that they will transmit the disease to others and spread it further

This makes sense to anyone who knows a child, given that they are basically walking petri dishes that will happily sneeze into your open mouth

FACT 6: Household spread appears to be relatively limited, with somewhere between 5-20% of households having a subsequent infection

Having a sick relative doesn't appear currently to be a doom sentence

More specifically, the WHO estimates that between 3-10% of all household contacts (i.e. people living with a sick person) get sick, which is not as scary a message as you might've heard

FACT 7: Thanks @trentyarwood for this excellent reminder that YOU CAN PREVENT THE SPREAD OS DISEASE

Wash your hands, people

https://twitter.com/trentyarwood/status/1236829423585779714?s=20

Note: I have tried to stick very much to established facts and well-supported arguments, but the nature of this disease is that everything is fluid! Some of this may/will change over the coming days/weeks