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FTSE 100 down 9% ... ftse 250 down 7% after sharp falls in Asian markets and largest fall in crude oil prices in three decades - direct and indirect effects of coronavirus, and knock on Saudi-Russian spat
BP & Shell have lost over a fifth of their value this morning on overnight oil price collapse
Worst day on UK stock market FTSE 100 since financial crisis

Fifth worst day on record.

HT @Refinitiv
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More from @faisalislam see all

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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Question on this important graph, is whether new policy of not doing routine tests in UK, and eg only testing those admitted at hospital will affect ability to compare. Doctors say most appropriate international comparison will now be mortality...
So for example Italy cases went from 1,000 to 5,000 in 1 week... but if testing is now really only people entering hospital - it wont go up like that, but every chance it would have been something different anyway.
Not testing, for example, contrasts with so far working S Korean strategy:
Read 3 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Health Sec Matt Hancock confirms to Marr that the isolation of over 70s for months for self protection is in the action plan but wont be announced yet...
Seems like a conscious tactic to roll pitch on an announcement but say we won’t do it just yet. This might be a very clever move to ensure people aren’t surprised by what otherwise increasingly draconian impositions and ensuring they sustain... but...
If the Government keeps on announcing things that will happen but not yet, then it raises the question right now about particularly vulnerable people - shd older people be going to mass gatherings now? Should parents of school kids who live with grandpa, be acting like this now?
Read 3 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Sainsburys chief actually understands behavioural science in email to customers: “more food and other essential items coming to us from manufacturers.. if we shop just for food we and our families need, there will be enough”

way to calm shoppers is to reassure on availability...
Ie observed lesson from 2008 banking crisis was not to say “don’t panic” say “we understand the increase in demand ... soon there will be more supply than you can possibly imagine”...

And then do some policy changes/ fiscal help to boost supply of items in temporary shortage.
Full letter to public from all supermarkets...

Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Nirav Kanodra
@niravstoons
Thread on #GameTheory #prosonersdilemma and #Oil prices #OPEC #OPEC+ #Shale
OPEC was formed in the 1970s and the cartel could control prices - because the global economy runs on oil, and bulk of the reserves were in the Middle East.

They figured out, Oil Demand is inelastic. People have to buy no matter what price. It’s the most dense form of energy.
Price Elasticity if Demand in the short run was 8x.

1% cut in Oil production would lead to 8% rise in price.

But if prices are too high, then people start saving energy and demand falls.
Read 37 tweets
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Navroop Singh
@NavroopSingh_
Crude Oil price war between KSA & Russia is good for India as it reduces the Oil Price Inflation reducing the substantial risk of Stagflation. Wid High Inflation with low growth & demand in Economy couldn’t have ask for more. A cool off in inflation cud mean more rate cuts by RBI
While the American shale will be hurt as well as low oil prices make it the market uncompetitive for them. However, America is already using Trade tactics to force coutries to buy American Shale/LNG to reduce Trade Deficit. Thus Saudi Arabia will be the biggest looser in this war
Iran will also be the biggest sufferer as it already faces sanctions & now oil price shock would kill whatever remains of its economy. Saudis have essentially to destroy Iran & Russian backing of it have sought to hit themselves with sledge hammer.
Read 11 tweets
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Kalu Aja
@FinPlanKaluAja1
One measure of any economy is the GDP. The GDP is simply the value of output the nation produces.

A bakery in Agege, makes 500 loaves of bread a day, and sell them for N10. The GDP of that bakery in Agege is N5,000 i.e. 500 loaves of bread multiplied by N10.
Now assume the bakery makes 600 loaves of bread at same price, then the GDP growth rate is increasing from 500 to 600 or 20%.what if the volume of bread falls from 500 to 400? Same thing, GDP growth has reduced by 20%.
When the bread sales reduces, it’s a slowdown, if the bread sales is negative for 6 months, it’s a Recession, if that Recession lasts for a year, it’s becomes a Depression. In Nigeria, the GDP growth has slowed down,
Read 19 tweets
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Javier Blas
@JavierBlas
Saudi Arabia says it has contained a fires after two large #oil facilities were attacked with drones: the Abqaiq processing center and the Khurais oilfield (video is Abqaiq) | #OOTT #SaudiArabia 🇸🇦 ⛽️🛢 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Abqaiq is perhaps the *world’s most important* oil installation. According to the @EIAgov, the plant has a capacity of >7 million b/d. “Most of the oil produced in the country [Saudi Arabia] is processed at Abqaiq before export or delivery to refineries” eia.gov/beta/internati…
This what @Aramco says about the Abqaiq plant: “As the company's largest oil processing facility and the largest crude oil stabilization plant in the world, Abqaiq plays a pivotal role in our day-to-day operations.”
Read 4 tweets

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#SNA #Yemenis #AramcoDroneStrike #CoronavirusPandemic #COVID19 #Yemen #Yuan #oilprice #Coronavirus #OOTT #REMEMBER #MiddleEast #StopArmingSaudi #IMF #Reuters #Shanghai #Europe #coronavirus #KSA #domestic #colonial #semiconductor #Trade #SINGAPORE #GERMANY

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