Thread by @vaughanbell

If you want to make sense of why the UK government are making the decisions they are making with regard to coronavirus: they have prepared over the last decade for a pandemic (focusing on pandemic flu) and the strategy and evidence based is public

gov.uk/guidance/pande…

Lots of people offering unsolicited advice about what seems obvious that's probably unhelpful. Here's the actual pandemic flu preparedness plan. It's well worth a read because it really dispels the idea that the decisions are made 'on the hoof'

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

Just one example - public transport operators have had a pandemic preparedness strategy in place for most of the last decade to put into place if asked. Amazing really.

Why aren't they automatically shutting down all schools? Because they've modelled pandemic outbreaks to see if it helps and looked at the existing evidence. Hence this guidance

Want to see all of the scientific evidence they're reviewed for different scenarios? It's here

gov.uk/government/pub…

Use of face masks, stopping large public gatherings, closing schools, advice to healthcare workers, public health behaviours, and so on.

Will this guarantee an outbreak won't be devastating. No, they clearly state they are planning for various 'worst case scenarios' (including one scenario with a mortality rate of 2.5% - fun).

But if you have a big audience, do think about whether your unsolicited 'common sense' advice is helping.

By the way, this Bloomberg article makes it seem like the UK's Nudge Unit is in charge of behavioural advice for the outbreak

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

...but they are clearly just one source of advice.

For example, UCL health psychologist Prof @SusanMichie did the behavioural science evidence review for the pandemic preparedness plan and is on the COVID-19 advisory committee

https://twitter.com/SusanMichie/status/1237273557593448450

It's not "being run by the Nudge Unit" as some on Twitter have suggested.

Also