Thread by @garrethhayes

Thread on Honda, Swindon, cars and Brexit.

Ok, let's play a game. A Brexit game.
Let's imagine a large UK company has a factory in Japan making something the UK regards as both valuable and important. Jam, let's say.

This factory is in Japan because its owner regards Asia as a key market. It invested in Japan because the Government there had assured the owners that Japan would offer a stable long-term base for dealing with Asia.

On that basis, the owners built a factory, hired staff and - from far away - watched their business grow.
They liked the stable environment in Japan and the proximity to other key markets.

In this (fictional) scenario, they liked the fact that anything made in Japan could be sold across Asia without any trade barriers. It was a sensible place for them to own a manufacturing site.
And then...

And then for no good reason, Japan announced that it was going to put up trade barriers with all its near neighbours.
Imagine watching that as the UK owner of a factory in Japan and trying to plan your business.

And in addition, with less than two months until these trade links were severed, the factory in Japan would not be able to say to the owners in the UK what the future trading arrangements would be like. Not two years, but two months.

Imagine what your investors would be saying, asking about the arrangements in Japan if you were saying 'we don't know. The Government told us it would all be fine but they seem to have changed their minds and nobody can say what is happening.'

So maybe there is still a market in Japan for this fictional jam, but suddenly it all looks like much more hassle. This is not a sensible way to plan a business. You cannot make long-term decisions in a country that does not function.

Look down the other end of the telescope, this is how the UK now looks to companies overseas. How is anyone far away going to look at this mess and commit to the UK for the long term?

Of course there are fluctuations in the demand for products. There always have been and always will be. Companies create jobs in places where they know they can make long-term investments.

The UK Government literally cannot say what any of its trading arrangements will be like in just over a month from now. One month.
The destruction of Swindon is totally avoidable. It is a terrible thing for the area.

And it almost certainly will not be the last area to be wrecked by Brexit.
The UK has trashed its international credibility for nothing.
It isn't a joke, this isn't a story.
/ends