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“Every little effort counts & it matters. We are all in this together”

Epidemiologist @bethlinas is on Explore The Space Podcast talking #epidemiology, the critical need to #FlattenTheCurve, & the aspirational nature of the effort against #COVID19

explorethespaceshow.com/podcasting/bet…
Please amplify @kidney_boy @JJcolemanMD @SashaShillcutt @aetiology @EricTopol @MarkHertling @chrissyfarr @meganranney @jeremyfaust @byrnes22 @DrLindaMD @choo_ek @starstrickenSF @DissanaikeMD @YoniFreedhoff @medpedshosp @NarjustDumaMD @hknightsf @AG_EM33 @AliRaja_MD
Please amplify @AllisonRBond @TomVargheseJr @drmlb @drninashapiro @DrHowardLiu @drjessigold @Inject_Orange @gradydoctor @ashishkjha @darakass @uche_blackstock @CarlosdelRio7 @DrJenGunter @PeterHotez @KHayhoe @cmclymer @jmugele @drjenniferbest
Please amplify @thecurbsiders @CPSolvers @cardionerds @mike_natter @tnicholsmd @DxRxEdu @rabihmgeha @BrighamSK @PaulNWilliamz @RobinCogan @daniel_kraft @MollyJongFast @thehowie @jbcarmody @medicalaxioms @brianchiong @MelBreggs @tony_breu @laxswamy @JosephSakran @nataliemwall
Appreciate all of you sharing.
This episode feels important...this moment is important.

We must do everything possible to #FlattenTheCurve

We are all in this together.

There is no alternative.
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Related hashtags

#epidemiology #FlattenTheCurve #COVID19

More from @ETSshow see all

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Mark Shapiro MD
@ETSshow
1/7
Inspired by @gradydoctor & @TheRealDoctorT today, I’d like to write a few words...
A #MedThread on how climate change impacts human health from the front line.
We are experiencing planned power shutdowns at the peak of California wildfire season.
2/7
 At my house it was 23 hours this time, 55 last week. Another this weekend.

But it is so much worse.

A person told me they can’t go home b/c there’s no one to care for them in a blackout. If it goes out this weekend they have to come back to the ED.

This is not unique.
3/7
 Today there was a fire near the hospital where I work, we could see the smoke.
Damn it was close
It was rapidly contained, there were no evacuations.
There was anxiety though, tangible, & intense. Surreal.
Long stares out the window, waiting for updates, staving off rumor
Read 8 tweets
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Mark Shapiro MD
@ETSshow
1/8
 It’s #ClimateWeek2019 so I thought I’d create a #MedThread/#Tweetorial of Explore The Space podcast episodes focusing on #ClimateChange.
Please scroll through!
2/8
 Episode 152 w/ @MichaelEMann
A smashing layout of the current state of #ClimateChange & our response w/tons of resources for us to communicate more effectively. Also a premium @BillNye name drop!
#ClimateChange
explorethespaceshow.com/podcasting/mic…
3/8
 Episode 132 w/ @Jamie_Margolin @ThisIsZeroHour
“The Teenager” (h/t @maryheglar) is tenacious, motivated, and inspiring.
She’s also just getting started!
#ClimateWeek
explorethespaceshow.com/podcasting/jam…
Read 9 tweets

Related threads

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New York Times Opinion
@nytopinion
How much worse might the coronavirus outbreak get? @NickKristof and @StuartAThompson created a model you can adjust to see what will happen depending on how people change their behavior. nyti.ms/38L6f24
We shouldn’t see this model as a precise prediction. It's useful, though, to show the difference interventions can make.

Without interventions, the model shows 100 million infected (9.4 million at once) and about 1 million dead. nyti.ms/38L6f24
Why do we need to #FlattentheCurve? This model shows how total infections (100 million) can be spread out with certain interventions, which will prevent the health care system from being overwhelmed. nyti.ms/38L6f24
Read 4 tweets
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Stuart A. Thompson
@stuartathompson
New from me and @NickKristof: we worked with epidemiologists to build a live coronavirus model.

How much worse could it get? How many lives will interventions save? Play with the model here and see: nytimes.com/interactive/20…
There’s so much uncertainty that we shouldn’t see this model as a precise prediction. It's useful, though, to show the difference interventions can make.

Without interventions, the model shows 100 million infected (9.4 million at once) and about 1 million dead.
👏 But 👏 interventions👏 matter.

Adding moderate interventions forces the infection rate way down. Seeing it here really helped me connect with something obvious: reducing infections (through social distancing, ex.) really just means *people won't die*
Read 9 tweets
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stuart mcdonald
@ActuaryByDay
Updated odds of catching COVID-19:

Mar 1-in-4600
Apr 1-in-140
May 1-in-5
Jun 1-in-2
Jul 1-in-12
Aug 1-in-150

Assumes continue current trajectory, without radical interventions.

Hopefully this gives context to Govt comments about timing interventions right.
As will be clear from comparison to last week 👇 the virus is spreading more quickly than forecast.

My estimate of the total number infected in 2020 is stable, four out of five will get it. Precisely timing the peak is harder tho, as I noted at the time.

The model I’ve used here is far from perfect. It doesn’t allow for variation in population density, seasonality and various other factors. Nonetheless it seems to be reconciling well with reported numbers, statements from government and view of experts in other fields.
Read 6 tweets
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U.S. Surgeon General
@Surgeon_General
Thread: 1/3 You’re likely hearing about the need to #flattenthecurve. It simply means spreading out the number of #coronavirus cases over a longer timeframe, so our healthcare and response systems don’t get overwhelmed...
2/3 We #flattenthecurve with NPIs- non pharmaceutical interventions (ie things other than medications or vaccines).

NPIs include: handwashing/ personal hygiene, targeted quarantines, school/ business/ closures, telework, limiting social gatherings, and cleaning surfaces
3/3 Life will be VERY different over the next few weeks. But if we all do our part we can spread our cases out, lessen impact to healthcare systems and communities, and get through this.
Know your risk, consider your circumstances, and Protect yourselves. Coronavirus.gov
Read 3 tweets
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Emily Ricotta, PhD
@Iplaywithgerms
#Event201 begins. Check it out online to participate virtually! centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/ #pandemic #biosecurity
Global leaders in business and government have convened to address the pandemic situation. @T_Inglesby from @JHSPH_CHS Moderates. See the #Event201 website for details on the participants.
Global distribution of cases and deaths from #Event201
Read 45 tweets
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Peter Thaleikis
@spekulatius1984
This morning I've finished Scott Kellys (@StationCDRKelly) Book "Endurance" ( bit.ly/endurance-scot… ). Some thoughts below.
First, thank you Scott for sharing your story along with many personal insights from your time in space. It's great to learn more about the long path to become an astronaut and all the immense effort behind the human space program.
While reading Scotts book I got to understand the scale of the challenges coming with living and working in space better. It starts with having no gravity assisting you with daily life, keeping yourself healthy and alert for the hostile environment you are living in.
Read 13 tweets

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