Thread by @V2019N

Update from @MRC_Outbreak @neil_ferguson @Imperial_JIDEA
-spreading outside China
-cruise ship shows how rapidly disease spreads
-epidemic might peak in Wuhan in next few weeks
-Mainland China only testing people w/ travel to Wuhan/Hubei

-expect epidemic to be progressing in China
-thinks only most severe being tested in China
-CFR ~18% in epicenter but only about 5% of cases being tested (most severe tested)
Can't use estimates for predicting, but #COVID serious threat that needs to be prepared for.

-long delay from diagnosis to death (3 weeks)
-when we look at deaths we need to look at what was happening 2 weeks ago
-lots of uncertainty b/c not capturing mild/asymptomatic
-countries only detecting 1 in 3 or 1 in 4 travel cases

-true number infected - will be able to guess based on people repatriated
-CFR 1% (with much uncertainty, 4 fold in each direction) could look like 1958 pandemic influenza or 1918 pandemic influenza
-estimates inform planning, hospital beds etc

Don't know attack rate but can base on past pandemics: 25%-40% get sick in first year, some w/ mild disease.
20%-30% get infected in first year but don't show symptoms
Attack rate: ~60% central estimate for first year