Thread by @JustinWolfers

Every month your favorite economists obsession over the so-called jobs report. This morning we're waiting for a different (but seemingly related) report, called initial claims.

It's a count of the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance last week.

"Initial claims" is important, because it's one of the timeliest indicators we have. It's released weekly, and with only a one week lag. This report is the first hard data about what happened *last week*.

And, spoiler alert... It's going to be a horror.

Here's how we know: A few partial indicators have snuck out of state UI offices over the past few days.

It'll surely be the largest ramp up in unemployment in history. (Stay tuned; we'll know more in 5 mins...)

https://twitter.com/BCAppelbaum/status/1240099288635621377

The UI claims number is important, because that'll be the number we use to say: We heard the economy snap in the second week of March. That's when the recession began.

But the actual number is a bit of a curiousity. We know that state unemployments offices were jammed. People couldn't get through on the phone lines. Websites crashed. Many more people wanted to apply than could.

So we're going to see "filed" claims, not "intended claims."

Oh, crap. I just realized... It's only Wednesday.

I got ahead of myself. Initial jobless claims data will be released *tomorrow*.

Tune in again, same time, same station, but tomorrow for these depressing data.

I just told @BetseyStevenson that today is only Wednesday, and... she was equally surprised.

If you think forecasting the economy is hard, try remembering what day of the week it is.