This is an interesting thread, to which I am about to add a controversial PS. Do not blame original authors, @jonathanchait and @yeselson !
My very personal opinion is that the period from October 2008 through spring 2009 was one of the finest hours in the history of US government - and that the Bush-Obama transition may be the *very* finest hour in the history of the presidency.
What happened was awful. It could have been so much worse, a 1931-33 style catastrophe. USG didn't get everything right. But it got enough right to cushion the impact and enable return to growth.
The Bush-Obama transition was a model of information-sharing, mutual deference, and public spirit. There's an excellent book on the subject. jhupbooks.press.jhu.edu/title/oath
The present crisis is bigger: there was no pandemic in 2008-2009. But the instrumentalities available to govt are also stronger: this is an entirely external shock, the economy was functioning well beforehand except for Trump's trade wars.
So with good management, this shock could be deeper than 08-09, but with a much faster and springier recovery. But that requires that
a) Trump find himself a Hank Paulson figure, somebody who commands broad respect, to run the crisis for him
and
a) Trump find himself a Hank Paulson figure, somebody who commands broad respect, to run the crisis for him
and
b) that Trump prepare now to ran the cooperative and respectful transition of power that is very likely to follow a catastrophe like this.
Once I say all that, you realize the problem: if the underlying economy was stronger than in 08, the incumbent administration is weaker
Once I say all that, you realize the problem: if the underlying economy was stronger than in 08, the incumbent administration is weaker
