Thread by @YossiGestetner

THREAD: The curve (amount of new cases) in the US is rising steeply and the death rate (amount of deaths relevant to known cases) is dropping for now. One is a “good” number; the other is a bad but they are both in large part a result of a change in testing levels.

First the numbers:

4.06% March 8 (22 deaths of 541 cases)

3.69% M9 26/704

3.01% M10 30/994

2.95% M11 38/1,295

2.52% M12 42/1,695

2.27% M13 49/2,247

1.93% M14 57/2,954

1.84% M15 68/3,680

1.82% M16 85/4661

1.70% M17 109/6,411

1.62% March 18 150/9,259

As you can see, the number of known cases spiked while the death rate until now is plunging. But no one really knows where we are because the case count (and therefore the curve and death rate) is rising and falling in part based on changes in testing. Looking at total deaths

and looking at the change in deaths per day can be a better guide but only with a limit. Why? Because deaths run a week and more behind than appearance of a cases. So if we will focus only on that, we are looking today at the weather report from last week. So it’s not good.

My point is that we need to look on as many Coronavirus data points to have an understanding where we in the US/NY are now and where we are heading in terms of cases and outcome. For example, look at this sobering number of added deaths per day over the day earlier:

March 8 (22 deaths)

March 9 (26 deaths) + 4

March 10 (30 deaths) + 4

March 11 (38 deaths) + 8

March 12 (42 deaths) + 4

March 13 (49 deaths) + 7

March 14 (57 deaths) + 8

March 15 (68 deaths) + 11

March 16 (85 of 4661) + 17

March 17 (109 deaths) +24

March 18 (150) + 41

Another key data point is - active - hospitalizations. This runs a few days behind but not so behind as deaths. Also, the hospitalization “rate” only tells U how many cases needed hospitals care relative to known cases. If you have 10K known cases and 1,500 needed hospital, you

have a hospitalization rate of 15%. Ok, this means if you know the next day that you actually have 30,000 cases - due to mass testing - then 2,000 cases would reflect a 6.6% hospitalization rate. Does this mean things got better? No. You went up with 500 raw hospitalizations!

After all is said and done, we need to look at the raw case count, raw hospitalizations, raw deaths, and the rate of those two. But what gives us the most accurate info is the day to day change in the number of people who need hospitalizations and how many remain there.

Because some people can’t handle a mathematical conversation, let me stress what I have been tweeting for a while. People should do their share to control the virus; prepare food/goods at home in cases of a lock, and to push for prudent steps; not panicked ones.

Panic is a state of mind which leads to stupid moves. If you think that the only way that you can heed warnings and be prepared IS BY SPREADING PANIC, then please keep it to yourself because your rhetoric is stressing the health system at a time when it needs less stress.

At his pressers today, @NYGovCuomo stressed that known cases in NY are spiking due to more testing; not that they are not there without the tests. But he also noted that he is looking at hospital cases. Ya, that’s basically my thread here.

The higher number is a function of testing.

The higher number is a function of testing.

The higher number is a function of testing.

Anyone reporting on cases among Hasidim should please lease note this point!

cc @aefeldman @ChrisMcKenna845 @TedShermanSL

https://twitter.com/jimmyvielkind/status/1241023898306699264