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Deconvoluting #COVID19's historic big miss in the US
theatlantic.com/health/archive… a sharp and thorough analysis by @alexismadrigal and @yayitsrob @TheAtlantic via @AdrienneLaF @edyong209 w/ storytelling curves
What I refer to as "historic big miss" are the 2 months of not doing any #COVID19 testing.
Essential to get ahead of the outbreak:
Testing anyone in the US w/ pneumonia or symptoms, do extensive contact tracing, find carriers, get #healthcare workers protected, limit the hit
This from Italy. How many super-spreaders were missed in the US for 2 months by coming to the ER and being sent home with no testing possible?
nytimes.com/2020/03/21/wor…
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Eric Topol
@EricTopol
The US will reach 100,000 #COVID19 cases & > 900 deaths by Friday, March 27, w/ doubling rates of 2.4 & 3.5 d, respectively. -> #1 in the world.
Recall that South Korea & US had their 1st patient diagnosed on Jan 21/22 (within 24 hrs). The Δ for SK vs US was testing + tracing
For more on the difference see lessons from SK (US did none of these, 1-3) nytimes.com/2020/03/23/wor… by @Max_Fisher and @choesanghun
and cdc.go.kr/board/board.es…
To quantify, in the month of February, well after #COVID19 had arrived in their countries, the total number of tests done:
South Korea >70,000
United States 352
Read 4 tweets
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Eric Topol
@EricTopol
Someday this book on US #COVID19 will be written.
Likely more chapters to come.
This is so damn hard to watch as it continues to unfold.
Updating with Chapter 8.
Thanks to all the responders for their excellent suggestions for added chapters. Clearly, many are right that the Preface should be "How to Disband the U.S. Pandemic Response Team"
Read 3 tweets
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Eric Topol
@EricTopol
So far there's been lots of speculation for #COVID19 asymptomatic carrier rate
—Mild or no symptoms: 60% nature.com/articles/d4158…
—"Some degree"—Fauci wsj.com/articles/why-i…
—Mild or no symptoms: 86% science.sciencemag.org/content/early/…
We really need to know this for people w/o symptoms
1/2
To resolve this we need a random mass screen of a diverse (age, gender, ancestry, geography) group without symptoms and shouldn't this undertaken straight away?
Thoughts?
@mlipsitchn @K_G_Andersen @trvrb @florian_krammer @CT_Bergstrom @JustinWolfers @Laurie_Garrett @mtosterholm
This essay from @mlipsitch reinforces how little we know compared with testing done in Asian countries, the very high asymptomatic rate
washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/0…
"The feckless federal response created such delays in testing that most cases here are not being confirmed, even now"
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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LOrion
@LOrion
MAR 23 #COVIDー19 #MDTHREAD 1: Most stories from WaPo tinyurl.com/r8uqf9b .. but not all. Two Today on #MAGA #Trumps preferred Treatment ( it usually kills faster than COVID) and Are you Immune if recover? FIRST NUMBERS 351,731 Deaths 15,374
MAR 23 #COVID19 #MDTHREAD 2: and here is link to yest thread on Thread Reader tinyurl.com/yx43ru4p .. with piece on #Croatia Earthquake. Sharing #London #Volunteer .. do consider Meals need delivery, patients in #FieldHospitals need moving. WASH YOUR HANDS Wear gloves outside
MAR 23 #COVIDー19 #MDTHREAD 3: @Surgeon_General begged Americans to #stayhome while warning that the situation is “going to get bad” in the coming days — #Trump seemed to suggest that containment measures may be too extreme... ? Calls for #MAGA revolt? PICK YOUR POISON..
Read 36 tweets
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Paul Nuki
@PaulNuki
IMPORTANT. Here is the modelling behind the UK Govs #covidー19uk strategy.

Big choice ahead: 1/Mitigation: 250k deaths, or 2/Suppression: 20k deaths but with a lockdown that ends only once a vax or treatment found.

imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
Both strategies have much the same mix of measures, all of which were announced tonight by the PM. The big difference is they are not lifted in the suppression option. My guess is government will now play it by ear - how long can Britain change its behaviour for
The hard fact driving these hard choices is NHS surge capacity. Remember that lovely 'flatten the curve' graphic the Economist put round with health capacity as a horizontal line across the middle? Well, it was right except in UK that line is at the bottom. Here's the real thing:
Read 7 tweets
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❌AltAlias
@JTweets1234
Is This The Man Behind The Global Coronavirus Pandemic?

Was a weaponized version of the coronavirus released by Wuhan's Institute of Virology which was studying "the world's most dangerous pathogens"?

#COVIDー19 #COVID19

zerohedge.com/health/man-beh…
Coronavirus Contains "HIV Insertions", Stoking Fears Over Artificially Created Bioweapon.

zerohedge.com/geopolitical/c…
India To Probe Wuhan Institute Of Virology

zerohedge.com/health/india-p…
Read 9 tweets
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Abdul El-Sayed
@AbdulElSayed
A challenge w/ #COVID is that panic, itself, is contagious—an “infodemic.”

Without strong, evidence-driven leadership, local leaders default to the most stringent policies.

We’re seeing this at all levels—from banning travel from Europe to shutting down schools.

Thread:

1/
For example, School closures MAY be right, but we don’t have any evidence; & they could do harm:

1) healthcare workers who are needed on the front lines have to scramble for care

2) it forces seniors—at most risk—to care for kids.

3) tons of kids rely on school lunches.

2/
AND we know that kids actually have low risk of serious #COVID. Only 2.4% of all cases in one study.

Rather than make policy specific to #COVID, ppl are borrowing policy from other infectious epidemics, like flu, which is super deadly for kids.

3/
 washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03…
Read 7 tweets
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Kwik Kwong
@KwikKwong
THREAD - #COVIDー19 #coronavirus #SARS_COV_2 #FLU Do your home work on #VitaminD3 and #VitaminC. Not enough money in it? Why isn’t anyone promoting it? What’s the 25OHD serum levels of those infected or that have died? ods.od.nih.gov/factsheets/Vit…
As an A1AD carrier and 15+yearly sufferer of chronic #bronchitis needing multiple antibiotics every year prior to ‘09 #swineflu scare - I thought if I got It I wouldn’t survive.
I read up on# respiratory issues and the benefits of #VitaminD3. So I started a 5000iu/day regime in ‘09 raising my 25OHD serum levels to 60 ng/ml. I have not had #bronchitis an antibiotic or the #flu since, no longer needed an inhaler for my asthma. Just wanted to put this out
Read 19 tweets
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LSMOH
@LSMOH
PRESS RELEASE

                       COVID-19: SUSPECTED CHINESE PATIENT TESTS NEGATIVE

The Chinese man who arrived Lagos yesterday aboard an Ethiopian Airline and suspected for COVID-19 has tested negative for the disease, Commissioner for Health, @ProfAkinAbayomi has said
@ProfAkinAbayomi who disclosed this today while giving an update on the management and control of COVID-19 outbreak in Lagos State said the patient who arrived yesterday aboard an Ethiopian Airline was taken into isolation after exhibiting symptoms of #COVIDー19.
According to him, samples were collected from the patient and the test which turned out negative was carried out the Lagos State Bio-security Level 3 laboratory located within the premises of the Mainland Hospital.
Read 11 tweets

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