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Really fantastic @nytimes piece on how COVID -19 spread from Wuhan to China and the world: nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Shows how China nearly lost control of the virus in Hubei but prevented exponential growth in every other Chinese province.
But here's the puzzle: if 900 people flew from Wuhan to New York in January but 15,000 flew to Bangkok, why does Thailand have just 721 confirmed cases today and New York state 16,916?
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More from @nfergus see all

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Niall Ferguson
@nfergus
This is a thread intended to explain why @nfergus the historian (not to be confused with the more important @neil_ferguson the epidemiologist) was rather earlier than most commentators to spot the coming pandemic. See here: niallferguson.com/search/results…. 1/10
I started my career working on the history of the city of Hamburg, which led me to read @RichardEvans36 's best book, Death in Hamburg, on the 1892 cholera epidemic. Here's the summary in my own first book. 2/10
When I turned to the First World War, in The Pity of War, I delved into the evidence that the German army collapsed in 1918 partly due to a surge of illness, possibly due to the "Spanish" influenza pandemic. 3/10
Read 10 tweets

Related threads

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Elie Guckert
@elieguckert
1/ Il y a quelques jours j'écrivais ce fil au sujet du niveau d'opacité des dictatures, et notamment de la Chine, sur leurs gestions du #COVIDー19. Nous sommes quelques jours plus tard, et les preuves commencent vraiment à s'accumuler. Suite :
2/ On dispose désormais de données très claires permettant de montrer à quel point la Chine, contrairement au récit en vogue, n'a pas du tout géré l'épidémie et comment elle l'a laissée se propager au monde entier. Article brillant du @nytimes : nytimes.com/interactive/20…
3/ On continue pourtant d'affirmer sans précautions que l'Italie a eu plus de morts que la Chine. On aurait ainsi plus de 50 morts/millions d'habitants en Italie, contre moins de 3 morts/millions en Chine. Vraiment ? leparisien.fr/societe/corona…
Read 16 tweets
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Dr. Dena Grayson
@DrDenaGrayson
Excellent overview of the #Wuhan #coronavirus. Some key points:

👉🏼More total cases of #2019nCoV than SARS
👉🏼Rate of new cases is accelerating
👉🏼Spreads more easily & is more deadly than seasonal flu
👉🏼Unlike #influenza, NO treatments or #vaccine

nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Although seasonal #influenza causes far more deaths than the new #coronavirus has (thus far), #2019nCoV appears to spread more readily from person-to-person + appears to be more deadly (higher mortality rate in those infected) = VERY bad.

@thespybrief
A major challenge is that the ability of #2019nCoV to spread (R0) and the mortality rate (% infected who die) are not confirmed, because it’s highly likely that there are FAR MORE cases of #coronavirus than reported.

Some don’t see a doctor, lack of testing, poor reporting...
Read 6 tweets
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War Watch
@war_watch
[THREAD] China Coronavirus Outbreak
A deadly virus is spreading from Asia, affecting hundreds of people and resulting in dozens of deaths, in what may become a gloabal health epidemic. This thread contains news about the outbreak.
#Coronavirus #WuhanOutbreak #ChinaVirus #WarWatch
On Dec 30, 2019, Chinese authorities confirmed cases of pneumonia of unknown cause in Wuhan, Hubei Province. A team of national experts was sent to carry out detection tests. Patients at a local seafood market were put in quarantine.
#Coronavirus #WuhanOutbreak #ChinaVirus
Liu Youning, a professor of epidemiology and respiratory medicine, told the Global Times that the #coronavirus found in #Wuhan appears to be far less serious than the virus that caused the severe acute respiratory syndrome (#SARS) or the Middle East respiratory syndrome (#MERS).
Read 53 tweets
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Webconsultas Salud
@webconsultas
⚠️Hilo especial #Webconsultas #coronavirus. En este #hilo os vamos a ir actualizando todo lo que se vaya confirmando sobre el nuevo coronavirus #2019nCoV #SomosInformación #SomosSalud #TwitterSalud
🗓️31 diciembre 19: la Comisión Municipal de Salud y Sanidad de Wuhan (Hubei, China) informa del primer brote de una misteriosa neumonía que ha afectado a 27 personas, tras descartarse que sea: gripe, gripe aviar, adenovirus, SARS-CoV o el MERS-CoV.
🗓️7 enero 20: autoridades sanitarias chinas identifican como agente causante del brote un nuevo tipo de virus de la familia Coronaviridae (nuevo #coronavirus, #2019nCoV), que probablemente procede de alguno de los animales del mercado Huanan de Wuhan. webconsultas.com/noticias/salud…
Read 55 tweets
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Dr. Dena Grayson
@DrDenaGrayson
🚨BREAKING: #China locks down 2 more cities—including public transportation, markets & theaters—in an effort to contain the #Wuhan #coronavirus. 20 million people live in locked-down cities.

The virus can spread btwn people via COUGHING.😳

@thespybrief
wsj.com/articles/sprea…
Patient 0 in the #CoronavirusOutbreak is believed to have been infected in a seafood and livestock market in #Wuhan, presumably by close contact with an infected animal.

Bad news: Now, the #coronavirus appears to have adapted to spread person-to-person.

The ultimate nightmare in an #outbreak is a pathogen that:

- is deadly
- can spread easily
- has no effective treatment or vaccine

#Wuhan #coronovirus is in the same viral family as SARS, which fit the above criteria. This new #CoronavirusOutbreak is VERY concerning.
Read 4 tweets

Trending hashtags

#COVID2019 #Mao #periodistas #China #WuhanCoronavirus #کرونا #GovBaker #COVIDー19 #PatrioticVirus #GILEAD #virus #2019nCoV #India #XPCC #covid19 #LunarNewYear #USA #Germany #passengertrains #Corona #Wuhan #Shanghai #Yuan #Kanagawa #StopCOVID19injails

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