Thread by @newpaulhearn

@BBCNews @itn @SkyNews @BBCNormanS @BBCFergusWalsh

It seems that COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a High Consequence Infectious Disease in the UK ...

gov.uk/guidance/high-…

I have read the Public Health Guidance and was struck by a couple of things.

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I see that SARS and MERS remain on the list of HCIDs. Neither of those 'penetrated' the UK to the same extent as COVID-19 but, both had lower transmission rates and higher fatality rates than (currently estimated for) COVID-19.
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Apart from the belief that COVID-19 may not meet the "typically has a high case fatality rate" criterion for definition as a HCID it does seem to meet all of the others.
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Reasons given for de-classification seem to include considerations not given in the criteria for defining a disease as HCID. Lower mortality rate than expected would, surely, be offset by the consideration of higher transmission rate than other HCIDs, such as SARS and MERS?
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My point about high transmission rate and lower CFR is relevant because if many more people contract DiseaseA than DiseaseB but a smaller percentage die from A than B, then the absolute consequence of A can be the same, or even worse overall, than B.
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So, it seems that someone may have decided that it's less of a concern if 5% of 100,000 infected people die than if (say) 20% of 25,000. For me, the consequence is the same! I'd add that having to manage 100,000 cases is a greater consequence than having to manage 25,000.
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Benefits of de-classification seem to be that all cases no longer have to be managed by designated HCID treatment centres and that PPE required by staff differs. Those benefits might be useful when the adequacy of facilities and resources is being questioned.
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