With the daily model, it looks like given the reported stats, we overshot.
The non-seasonally adjusted advance state numbers have 2.9m UI claims. Our two models reported 3.36m (weekly model) and 3.87m (daily).
So what how did we do?
The non-seasonally adjusted advance state numbers have 2.9m UI claims. Our two models reported 3.36m (weekly model) and 3.87m (daily).
So what how did we do?
Here are the state predictions, with the advance stats on the x-axis, and our two predictions on the y-axis (level scale and log-scale). 
A few things jump out. The first is California and New York appear far far off from our predictions. That drives a big chunk of our error (not all of it).
The second, unsurprisingly, is that the daily model is higher than weekly (unsurprising since the daily predicted higher).
The second, unsurprisingly, is that the daily model is higher than weekly (unsurprising since the daily predicted higher).
Going to be very interested to see how the updates to these figures look in the future.
