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We've (@aaronsojourner and I) updated with forecasts for the week of 3/22-3/28: paulgp.github.io/GoogleTrendsUI…

Our baseline estimate for this coming week (3/22-3/28) is 4.696 million new claims, with confidence interval of 4.2 - 5.1 million.
As we discussed, the advance estimates appear to be quite low, perhaps due to processing issues in swamped states’ administrative systems.

When we adjust for our numbers to get closer to "advance" numbers we get an estimate of 3.54 million new claims for 3/22-3/28.
Google Trends interest this week is still really high...today is the highest it's been in 7 days...
[As mentioned in the Upshot piece about today's numbers: nytimes.com/interactive/20… ]
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
@paulgp
Posted a new draft of a paper with @sgil1122: "Heterogeneous Real Estate Agents and the Housing Cycle"

In it, we document several interesting empirical facts about housing + RE agents, and use them to discuss aggregate liquidity of housing.

paulgp.github.io/papers/Heterog…

Thread👇🏼
The housing market is a great example of a search market -- rather than a central clearing price for good, there exist many bilateral negotiations and matches.

An under-appreciated feature of this (a key feature in labor search models): many houses listed for sale fail to sell!
As we see above, even during boom periods, only 70 percent of listed homes sell within a year. During the housing bust, this rate plummeted to below fifty percent! We term this the "liquidity" of the market.

We focus on a central feature of this market:
real estate agents.
Read 18 tweets
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
@paulgp
@autoregress @yudapearl @Jabaluck Great food for thought, thanks Peter.

If I could elaborate on the empirical setting, I might change in the following way:

X: committed a crime
Z: crime recorded in databases

This highlights that there are two types of error that could occur:
(X = 1, Z = 0) vs. (X = 0, Z= 1).
@autoregress @yudapearl @Jabaluck Still consistent with all your points, but might be slightly more empirically relevant in some of the settings (I'm keeping credit records in the back of my mind)
@autoregress @yudapearl @Jabaluck It also helps show why there may be an issue with the front-door here, say vs. the the backdoor. Say there are two "crime registries" that employers use. Z1 and Z2. You as the empirical researcher only observe Z1. I think then, your frontdoor estimate would be wrong, right?
Read 3 tweets
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
@paulgp
Great Ely lecture that my dad (!) @JohnAGoldsmith forwarded to me, by Harry Johnson in 1971. jstor.org/stable/1816968

\thread
I'm sure @Undercoverhist has covered this paper before, but it's a fun lecture to read for this broad coverage of "what conditions make an intellectual revolution possible" in our profession, where "revolution" should always be in quotes.
Modern (as of 1971) econ, according to Johnson, is built on several sequential 'revolutions': Smith -> Ricardo -> Marginalists (Neo-classical).
Read 12 tweets

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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
EXC: 🚨🚛🚇⛴🚨🔥

Logistics/Freight/Ports/Shipping all FURIOUS & BAFFLED after govt tells them it won’t seek waiver on EU Safety & Security Border declarations. #Brexit red tape bonanza dead ahead. My latest for ⁦@telebusiness⁩ 1/thread telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/…
@telebusiness So first the 'what': last week at the Brussels negotiations the UK indicated it did not wish to remain part of the EU's safety and security zone.

As a result the UK will not seek a waiver for safety and security declarations for ALL goods coming/going UK-EU and vice versa /2
@telebusiness This was communicated to industry stakeholders last week in a note from the Border Delivery Group to industry stakeholders - such as UK Chamber of Shipping, ports operators, Freight Transport Association, Bifa (the Freight Forwarders Association) Eurotunnel et alios. /3
Read 16 tweets
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Damien Henry
@dh7net
I had the chance to go to Vancouver for @NeurIPSConf, one of the biggest conference dedicated to Machine Learning and #AI.

It's was a big week, and in this thread I'll summarize what I learned there :-)
Sunday is all about the very long lines to register.

There was 13k attendees this year!

It’s also the day of the expo industry.
All big players were here. Only @nvidia was missing.

It was fun to see @ArthurIMiller at the @mitpress booth.
mitpress.mit.edu/books/artist-m…
Read 40 tweets
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GLAD
@glad_1723
Are you using the Shift-Share Design?

Today, we read the new @QJEHarvard by Adao, Kolesar & Morales who show us that many Shift-Share Designs produce too small confidence intervals (i.e. many false positives). A must-read for applied economists!

#econfriday
In the Shift-Share Design, we identify a causal effect via two components: An exogenous shock to all observations in our sample (the "Shift") combined with how much an observation is hit by that shock (the "Share").
To compute the "Share", we usually rely on pre-determined characteristics of a unit. For a subnational analysis of the effects of a global price-shock to some good for example, we might compute how much a region produced of this good before the shock.
Read 13 tweets
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Benjamin Robinson
@benj_robinson
The Cardinals start off night 2 with my 23 ranked player, Byron Murphy. Great value. Now the second best value pick of the draft after Montez Sweat by my mock draft data of this draft. Love the pick!
benjaminrobinson.github.io/vis/tc/Byron%2…
Colts are taking this selection as part of the trade with the Jets that got the Jets Sam Darnold last year and they use it to take another corner and a candidate for my All-Name team of the draft, Rock Ya-Sin (not his real name but still).

benjaminrobinson.github.io/vis/tc/Rock%20…
Jags took Josh Allen in the first round and follow it up with the new highest value pick! He was the #7 player based on my mock draft data and the Jaguars get him at pick 35, 28 picks of surplus value.
benjaminrobinson.github.io/vis/tc/Jawaan%…
Read 39 tweets
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Matthew Willemsen
@mwill_crypto
0/ The level of daily activity that takes place in the #crypto and #blockchain space never ceases to amaze me.

Below, a 22-part thread full of project announcements and other ecosystem events from the past ~24 hours. Enjoy!
1/ 🚀 @DharmaProtocol- and @CompoundFinance-powered @Bloqboard introduced its 'Offers to Lend' feature!

Now, lenders can offer to lend $BAT, $DAI, $REP, $WETH and $ZRX in a P2P-manner from their @MetaMask_io wallet. Can be done in under a minute!
2/ 🙋‍♂️ Hong Kong-headquartered @CryptoCom appointed Tyson Hackwood (@tysonius) to its leadership team as senior vice president and head of global merchant acquisition.

Previously, Tyson led @PaypalHereAU and @Braintree's Asia-Pacific region. Big hire! prnewswire.com/news-releases/…
Read 25 tweets
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Christopher Allen
@ChristopherA
0/ “Self-Sovereign Identity: A Progress Report”…
1/ On this day two years ago I chose the term “Self-Sovereign Identity” as the name for a new manifesto of 10 foundational principles for digital identity. It was a rallying cry to start a movement toward human-rights focused decentralized identity.
2/ I was not the first to use the term. The earliest I know of was Devon Loffreto @NZN writing in Project VRM and later in his blog about "sovereign source authority" where he said that individuals “have an established Right to an ‘identity’”. moxytongue.com/2012/02/what-i…
Read 34 tweets

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