Why we must maintain extreme social distancing:
ctmirror.org/2020/03/26/why…
"If we try to slow down this epidemic for 3 mos by isolating only the sick, their household members, + people over 70, we would still end up with 8 sick people for every one available critical care bed."
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ctmirror.org/2020/03/26/why…
"If we try to slow down this epidemic for 3 mos by isolating only the sick, their household members, + people over 70, we would still end up with 8 sick people for every one available critical care bed."
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But "if we isolate people who are sick with COVID-19 AND practice social distancing of the entire population AND household quarantine AND close schools and universities for FIVE MONTHS, ..."
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"... we can keep case numbers low enough that there should be enough critical care hospital beds for everyone who needs one."
FIVE MONTHS, people. With 70% compliance.
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FIVE MONTHS, people. With 70% compliance.
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The best (and most influential) COVID-19 modelling is being done at @imperialcollege London. Link to all their reports below. Their latest says half-measures as US conservatives urge will mean "only" 7 people vying for each hospital bed instead of 20:
imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…
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imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…
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