I have carried out some personal studies on the #COVIDー19 situation in Nigeria and let me say here that we have another 2 weeks window to seize control or fall apart. We are not in that bad phase yet.
1st case - 25th of February
51st case - 26th of March
1st case - 25th of February
51st case - 26th of March
Are we testing enough? No. Is the disease spreading rapidly? No. Despite our nonchalant attitude, the attack rate seem a bit low here.
Young population / immunity? Maybe. If we assume that there are cases out there untested, it's almost a month after the first case..
Young population / immunity? Maybe. If we assume that there are cases out there untested, it's almost a month after the first case..
There is no community spread yet. If there were cases untested, they should have been critically ill by now, regardless we should two batches of critically ill persons in Lagos who would either recover at home, forced to present at the hospital or die.
If we don't record massive influx of people into hospitals and a higher than normal mortality rate in Lagos in the next 14 days then we didn't have a huge number of untested cases abinitio.
So lock it down now. There are no resources to rapidly test, lock the state down.
So lock it down now. There are no resources to rapidly test, lock the state down.
If we have untested cases in thousands as postulated especially within the low income segment, a few of them will become symptomatic soon and they will start rushing to "genera" i.e The General Hospital.
The state hospitals and private hospitals must be on high alert
The state hospitals and private hospitals must be on high alert
@DoctorBrasco what do you think?
