Not to be harsh, but this is quite literally fake news, @JordanSchachtel.
As @RaheemKassam and others have explained, Ferguson is not "running" from his original projection. His prediction is *in his original paper*
As @RaheemKassam and others have explained, Ferguson is not "running" from his original projection. His prediction is *in his original paper*
As @RaheemKassam points out - the 20,000 figure was an estimate of what would happen if Britain put in place full social distancing measures (which they now have)
This is from Ferguson's initial paper, page 13.
21,000 is the projected death figure if the UK implements the measures which it now has.
h/t, again, to @RaheemKassam.
imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
21,000 is the projected death figure if the UK implements the measures which it now has.
h/t, again, to @RaheemKassam.
imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
And to be clear: I still am deeply skeptical of models like this Imperial model. There are way too many unknowns.
But that doesn't mean it's right to say that the modeler is "running away" from his prediction, when he's got the receipts to prove otherwise.
But that doesn't mean it's right to say that the modeler is "running away" from his prediction, when he's got the receipts to prove otherwise.
