Let's look at Iceland data for a minute shall we? The first day, Iceland lists in their data as having a positive test is February 27 when they registered 23 positive tests. All this is important so follow me. Iceland has done the most comprehensive population testing 1/n
And for other reasons they are a good test case. I have not been able to find an Iceland specific R0 so let's use the daily 30% growth rate. Let's also assume that on February 27, the positive tests were ALL the cases on the island but they had already started the chain of 2/n
events so to speak. If those guys go into quarantine but corona spreads around Iceland at 30% daily growth what happens? Before we do that, let's note that Iceland has done almost 14k tests on an island of 360k so more than 3% of the total population and it has enough 3/n
Randomness to make us feel we are getting not just hospital patients. They have more than 800 confirmed cases, 10k people in quarantine, 800 in isolation, 18 hospitalizations, 6 in ICU, and 2 dead. So now let's circle back to what our relatively conservative model says 4/n
About how many people SHOULD have corona if the spread etc numbers are accurate. As of March 27, Iceland would be expected to have more than 46k people that have corona. Emphasis this is on an island of 360k and 800 confirmed cases. There are a couple of final points. 5/n
First, yes take corona seriously but the internal logic and mathematic prediction of the fear monger world is ending predictions are absurdly inconsistent and nonsensical. Second, yes there are clearly taxed areas of hot spots and resources should be allocated accordingly 6/n
But the data simply does not support the hypothesis of mass death. There is enormous focus on places like Italy and Wuhan while places and data from places like Iceland and Vo are completely ignored. This is like going to a car crash and saying no one anywhere should drive 7/n
Look broadly at the data and what we know about corona. Take it seriously but shutting down the global economy for months and the level of panic we are seeing simply does not match the data the continues to come out on a daily basis.
