1/ Caveat when in crisis distribution: To refresh, 3 phases of distribution:
1) Conventional
2) Contingency
3) Crisis
Risk escalates when you move from Crisis to Contingency and exponential when system moves to Conventional. And you can move from one phase in a moments notice.
1) Conventional
2) Contingency
3) Crisis
Risk escalates when you move from Crisis to Contingency and exponential when system moves to Conventional. And you can move from one phase in a moments notice.
2/ Going from water to steam changes phase quickly so you better be testing the temperature of distribution water continuously. A convex profit curve can turn concave rapidly leaving you holding the bag.
3/ Worked from home yesterday &had a conference call with mys sister and cousin (partners). Needed to place an order for ingredients & materials. Everybody (including me) were making all of these projections that admittedly were all horse sh*t guesses. Useless waste of our time
4/ We broke the log jam of collective forecast idiocy by all agreeing on what dollar figure were we all comfortable losing if the "music stopped" and we went from crisis to conventional and supply gap filled by normal distributors.
5/ I think we have two weeks of crisis supply gap of sanitizer, but could be completely wrong. We agreed on a dollar amount that we were comfortable losing. We could adjust this later as it is fluid. Dollar risk profile increased but our comfort with the increased risk has eased
