Thread by @DrSimEvans

My latest @CarbonBrief analysis:

CO2 emissions within the UK fell another 2.9% in 2019, reaching levels last seen in 1888 (!)

Including a record 7 consecutive years of decline, emissions fell by 29% over the past decade.

THREAD

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uks-c…

@CarbonBrief Firstly, I have answers to all the questions we get about this analysis – every year – and you can read those in my article.

Please do read it before asking about…

* if the UK is on track (it isn't)
* imports
* biomass
* international aviation

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uks-c…

Looking back over the past decade, the UK's CO2 emissions fell by 145MtCO2 (or 29%) even as GDP rose by a fifth.

Strikingly, I also estimate that UK consumption emissions also fell by 145MtCO2 over the period (21%)

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uks-c…

But let's be absolutely clear:

The UK is not expected to meet its legally-binding climate goals for 2030 without a stronger policy response from govt.

(Govt projections confirm this)

Moreover those goals are "likely" insufficient for net-zero, says CCC

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uks-c…

So why have UK CO2 emissions been falling?

Overwhelmingly it's thanks to reductions in coal use in the power sector, with coal accounting for two-thirds of the overall reduction over the past decade.

NB how emissions from gas are down to.

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uks-c…

Adding to that, it's worth reiterating what we published last year, which found that the past decade of transformation in the power sector is a story about coal being replaced by lower demand and renewables (NOT gas)

interactive.carbonbrief.org//how-uk-transf…

Now it's worth asking, what's going on with CO2 emissions from oil, unchanged over the past decade, making transport the largest emitting sector in the UK…

In short
* more miles driven, heavier cars
* fuel efficiency going backwards
* delivery vans

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uks-c…

For 1st time this year I also did a simple "kaya identity" analysis of contributions to UK CO2 emissions over the past decade. V interesting.

Largest contributor has been improvements in "energy intensity" ie the UK becoming much more energy efficient.

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uks-c…

Just a few things to finish…

Our approach to estimating UK CO2 emissions is necessarily less sophisticated than the methodology used by government, because we have access to less information.

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uks-c…

As usual, we have published a comparison showing how our estimates stack up against UK govt figures, due out at the end of the month.

In short, we usually do pretty well (see article for more).

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uks-c…