Thread by @Charles_Lister

This is a masterclass in research by @Elizrael & @Qussai_jukhadar -- I'm proud to be publishing it on @MiddleEastInst.

- "Ravaged by war, #Syria’s health care system is utterly unprepared for the #COVID19 pandemic."

mei.edu/publications/r…

@Elizrael @Qussai_jukhadar @MiddleEastInst #pt: While most health experts project terrible #COVID19 implications for #Syria, the @WHO insists a "minor outbreak" is more likely.

Why? @WHO's analysis is based on #Wuhan/#China data - which is absurd, given the contrasts in governance, security & healthcare capacity.

@Elizrael @Qussai_jukhadar @MiddleEastInst @WHO #pt: If equating #Syria's capacity to deal w. #COVID19 with #China's wasn't crazy enough, @WHO went further - predicting #Idlib would witness a 50% less infection rate than #Wuhan:

- 2,413 infections
- 121 ICU cases

Out of 4 million people, most in IDP camps w. no services.

@Elizrael @Qussai_jukhadar @MiddleEastInst @WHO #pt: In regime hospitals, the secret police have taken over, restricting doctor access to patients &, in all likelihood, covering up the scale of #COVID19 spread through fear & intimidation.

Service is limited based on "connections & favoritism," per one government employee.

@Elizrael @Qussai_jukhadar @MiddleEastInst @WHO #pt: In #SDF-held NE #Syria, all #COVID19 swabs have to go to #Damascus for testing, in a @WHO-backed process.

Under regime pressure, @WHO teams won't collect swabs from hospitals backed by the some INGOs (for e.g., @MSF), forcing sick patients to travel to regime facilities.

@Elizrael @Qussai_jukhadar @MiddleEastInst @WHO @MSF #pt: The @WHO's broken #COVID19 testing system - dependent on a cooperative #Assad regime - for NE #Syria was revealed recently:

- March 29: #COVID19 test collected & sent to #Damascus;
- April 2: patient dies;
- April 18: @WHO informs #SDF (AANES) the test was positive.