Thread by @Charles_Lister

A lot has changed in #Idlib/NW #Syria in recent days & much of the focus has been on hour-by-hour developments & less has been said on what it all means going forward.

Here's a lengthy thread laying out some of my thinking.

2 weeks ago, pro-#Assad forces were rampaging through #Idlib, overwhelming opposition defenses & swallowing up #Turkey's military observation posts almost at will.

The world stood virtually silent - or indifferent - as 1 million people were methodically & brutally displaced.

#pt: Amid the pro-#Assad advances, #Turkey ramped up arms supplies & intel sharing with #NLF/#SNA opposition proxies - in an attempt to bolster their offensive & defensive capabilities.

Then #TSK artillery support was added, along with a low-tempo campaign of covert UAV strikes.

#pt: Those escalatory moves by #Turkey were an example of an attempt to "escalate-to-deescalate," but they failed:

=> #Russia dramatically counter-escalated, killing 33+ #TSK soldiers in a night-time laser-guided air assault (involving 'bunker busters') on a #TSK command HQ.

#pt: That high-casualty incident was a game-changing moment, catalyzing #Turkey's 'Operation Peace Spring' -- an intensive (& unprecedented) military campaign of precision UAV & long-range MRL strikes, plus frontline #TSK offensive operations embedded with opposition proxies.

#pt: For the 1st time in 9yrs, #Syria has faced a sustained military campaign by an adversarial state actor - and it's suffered greatly.

The #SAA's heavy weapons arsenal has been smashed - these numbers are, I'm told, deemed to be more or less accurate within the US government.

#pt: Intriguingly, #Turkey's use of layered electronic warfare, sophisticated UAVs (Anka & Bayraktar TB2) & precision-guided munitions has overwhelmed the defenses of #Russia-made Su-24 jets & Pantsir-S1 (SA-22) and BUK (SA-18) air defense systems.

That's a big wake-up call.

#pt: #Turkey's UAV-led campaign in #Idlib puts a BIG dent in the long-established argument in the US that "#Syria's air defenses" pose a considerable military challenge.

Also, #Russia has broader geopolitical calculations at play; it's stood back & left #Turkey's aircraft alone.

#pt: #Turkey's 'Operation Peace Spring' has also demonstrated more clearly than anything before that "kinetic sticks" are the only viable method of creating leverage & changing adversary calculations in #Syria.

#Russia & #Kremlin-linked analysts have done a 180 in the past week.

#pt: That some analysts & former government folks continue to parrot tired phrases like "there's no military solution" & to push for an aid-only response shows zero lessons have been learned from the last 9yrs.

Aid is desperately needed now, but it's a bandaid, not a solution.

#pt: Even worse is the idea still held all too widely that mass displacement is a 'symptom' of #Syria's crisis.

NO. Displacement is *the* defining objective of #Assad's entire strategic response to opposition. He seeks to "cleanse" #Syria of "cancerous cells" - *permanently.*

#pt: Back to #Idlib.

Most significant is #Assad's manpower losses -- likely 1,500+ KIA since hostilities began on Dec 1, plus larger numbers of wounded.

Since Feb 28, ~60 have been killed per day, mostly by #Turkey strikes.

Now, reinforcements are police & teenage conscripts.

#pt: Until recently, #Idlib was a battle of attrition, but one in which the #Turkey-backed opposition was at a severe disadvantage.

With #Turkey air & artillery support, the tables have been turned & it's unclear if #Assad can sustain this rate of attrition w/o losing ground.

#pt: In recent days, reports indicate that #Iranian proxies - especially #Hezbollah - have assumed a lead role in frontline operations, particularly in command & offensive maneuvers.

That's a clear indication of #SAA manpower insufficiencies, but it also raises Qs about #Iran...

#pt: Until Jan, #Iran had stayed out of the #Idlib campaign -- NW #Syria isn't a critical interest for #Tehran.

#Assad's launch of an offensive in W. #Aleppo brought #Iran & its proxies in because securing #Aleppo *is* a strategic priority for #Iran. But now they're beyond that.

#pt: How long can #Assad count on #Iran to expend regionally valuable manpower on a front that now symbolizes a #Syria vs. #Turkey battleground?

#TSK strikes have killed dozens of #Hezbollah & #Fatemiyoun militiamen in recent days & those losses will only accelerate now.

#pt: Tomorrow #Putin & #Erdogan will meet to negotiate over #Idlib.

That there's a meeting at all shows how #Turkey's military campaign has impacted #Russia's previous refusal to give #Erdogan the respect of an in-person meeting.

But has enough changed to secure a 'good' deal?

#pt: For #Erdogan, the fate of #Idlib has become an issue of existential importance domestically in #Turkey -- a thin border zone isn't enough.

A compromise could be found by drawing a line along the M5 & M4 highways, leaving #Turkey a zone of ~35km depth south to #Idlib city.

#pt: BUT, it's virtually impossible to foresee a scenario in which #Assad agrees to cede a more expansive zone -- *unless* #Turkey's campaign continues & the costs mean #Russia & #Iran have no choice but to force the issue, by removing what #Assad needs (jets & men) to fight.

#pt: All of this is to say that while dynamics have changed dramatically in recent days, I don't think we're going to see a permanent ceasefire or arrangement agreed tomorrow in #Moscow.

A deal, maybe, but it'll be short-term. #Turkey has too much at stake & #Assad will spoil.

#pt: With the launch of Peace Spring, #Erdogan has found a mode of action that (a) works, (b) could be sustained & (c) if it is, #Ankara's leverage is likely to grow further.

Reading his speech to the AKP & the scope of recent messaging, this doesn't sound like a brief campaign.

#pt: That would mean the US & #Europe may still have a window in which to insert themselves: to do good for #Idlib, to stave off a bigger migrant wave & to coax #Turkey to distance from #Russia.

The #Idlib crisis has global repercussions - it was never something we could ignore.

#pt: More broadly, #Idlib is a symptom of the broader - and ongoing - #Syria crisis. The war isn't over, it's changing.

The U.S. & #Europe must sustain diplomatic & economic pressure on #Assad's regime at a time when its strategic capabilities are weakening before our eyes.

#pt: In #Washington, the #CaesarAct gives USG even more of a reason to begin sanctioning #Russia for its war crimes in #Syria.

The @UNCoISyria just attributed 2 war crimes to #Russia, for the 1st time.

The @UN Board of Inquiry into hospital bombings will be complete imminently.

@UNCoISyria @UN #pt: On the humanitarian level, the UNSC will hold a vote this Summer that could end cross-border aid into #Idlib altogether.

That would be utterly catastrophic - especially if conflict continues and/or if #Coronavirus reaches the IDP population.

We can influence that vote.

@UNCoISyria @UN The #Syria crisis isn't someone else's problem & the war isn't in its final phase.

- #ISIS is resurgent in the central desert;
- Refugees aren't going home;
- Insurgencies are reemerging;
- The economy is dead;
- Loyalist communities are restless.
etc.

We must stay engaged.