My Authors
Read all threads
A lot has changed in #Idlib/NW #Syria in recent days & much of the focus has been on hour-by-hour developments & less has been said on what it all means going forward.

Here's a lengthy thread laying out some of my thinking.
2 weeks ago, pro-#Assad forces were rampaging through #Idlib, overwhelming opposition defenses & swallowing up #Turkey's military observation posts almost at will.

The world stood virtually silent - or indifferent - as 1 million people were methodically & brutally displaced.
#pt: Amid the pro-#Assad advances, #Turkey ramped up arms supplies & intel sharing with #NLF/#SNA opposition proxies - in an attempt to bolster their offensive & defensive capabilities.

Then #TSK artillery support was added, along with a low-tempo campaign of covert UAV strikes.
#pt: Those escalatory moves by #Turkey were an example of an attempt to "escalate-to-deescalate," but they failed:

=> #Russia dramatically counter-escalated, killing 33+ #TSK soldiers in a night-time laser-guided air assault (involving 'bunker busters') on a #TSK command HQ.
#pt: That high-casualty incident was a game-changing moment, catalyzing #Turkey's 'Operation Peace Spring' -- an intensive (& unprecedented) military campaign of precision UAV & long-range MRL strikes, plus frontline #TSK offensive operations embedded with opposition proxies.
#pt: For the 1st time in 9yrs, #Syria has faced a sustained military campaign by an adversarial state actor - and it's suffered greatly.

The #SAA's heavy weapons arsenal has been smashed - these numbers are, I'm told, deemed to be more or less accurate within the US government.
#pt: Intriguingly, #Turkey's use of layered electronic warfare, sophisticated UAVs (Anka & Bayraktar TB2) & precision-guided munitions has overwhelmed the defenses of #Russia-made Su-24 jets & Pantsir-S1 (SA-22) and BUK (SA-18) air defense systems.

That's a big wake-up call.
#pt: #Turkey's UAV-led campaign in #Idlib puts a BIG dent in the long-established argument in the US that "#Syria's air defenses" pose a considerable military challenge.

Also, #Russia has broader geopolitical calculations at play; it's stood back & left #Turkey's aircraft alone.
#pt: #Turkey's 'Operation Peace Spring' has also demonstrated more clearly than anything before that "kinetic sticks" are the only viable method of creating leverage & changing adversary calculations in #Syria.

#Russia & #Kremlin-linked analysts have done a 180 in the past week.
#pt: That some analysts & former government folks continue to parrot tired phrases like "there's no military solution" & to push for an aid-only response shows zero lessons have been learned from the last 9yrs.

Aid is desperately needed now, but it's a bandaid, not a solution.
#pt: Even worse is the idea still held all too widely that mass displacement is a 'symptom' of #Syria's crisis.

NO. Displacement is *the* defining objective of #Assad's entire strategic response to opposition. He seeks to "cleanse" #Syria of "cancerous cells" - *permanently.*
#pt: Back to #Idlib.

Most significant is #Assad's manpower losses -- likely 1,500+ KIA since hostilities began on Dec 1, plus larger numbers of wounded.

Since Feb 28, ~60 have been killed per day, mostly by #Turkey strikes.

Now, reinforcements are police & teenage conscripts.
#pt: Until recently, #Idlib was a battle of attrition, but one in which the #Turkey-backed opposition was at a severe disadvantage.

With #Turkey air & artillery support, the tables have been turned & it's unclear if #Assad can sustain this rate of attrition w/o losing ground.
#pt: In recent days, reports indicate that #Iranian proxies - especially #Hezbollah - have assumed a lead role in frontline operations, particularly in command & offensive maneuvers.

That's a clear indication of #SAA manpower insufficiencies, but it also raises Qs about #Iran...
#pt: Until Jan, #Iran had stayed out of the #Idlib campaign -- NW #Syria isn't a critical interest for #Tehran.

#Assad's launch of an offensive in W. #Aleppo brought #Iran & its proxies in because securing #Aleppo *is* a strategic priority for #Iran. But now they're beyond that.
#pt: How long can #Assad count on #Iran to expend regionally valuable manpower on a front that now symbolizes a #Syria vs. #Turkey battleground?

#TSK strikes have killed dozens of #Hezbollah & #Fatemiyoun militiamen in recent days & those losses will only accelerate now.
#pt: Tomorrow #Putin & #Erdogan will meet to negotiate over #Idlib.

That there's a meeting at all shows how #Turkey's military campaign has impacted #Russia's previous refusal to give #Erdogan the respect of an in-person meeting.

But has enough changed to secure a 'good' deal?
#pt: For #Erdogan, the fate of #Idlib has become an issue of existential importance domestically in #Turkey -- a thin border zone isn't enough.

A compromise could be found by drawing a line along the M5 & M4 highways, leaving #Turkey a zone of ~35km depth south to #Idlib city.
#pt: BUT, it's virtually impossible to foresee a scenario in which #Assad agrees to cede a more expansive zone -- *unless* #Turkey's campaign continues & the costs mean #Russia & #Iran have no choice but to force the issue, by removing what #Assad needs (jets & men) to fight.
#pt: All of this is to say that while dynamics have changed dramatically in recent days, I don't think we're going to see a permanent ceasefire or arrangement agreed tomorrow in #Moscow.

A deal, maybe, but it'll be short-term. #Turkey has too much at stake & #Assad will spoil.
#pt: With the launch of Peace Spring, #Erdogan has found a mode of action that (a) works, (b) could be sustained & (c) if it is, #Ankara's leverage is likely to grow further.

Reading his speech to the AKP & the scope of recent messaging, this doesn't sound like a brief campaign.
#pt: That would mean the US & #Europe may still have a window in which to insert themselves: to do good for #Idlib, to stave off a bigger migrant wave & to coax #Turkey to distance from #Russia.

The #Idlib crisis has global repercussions - it was never something we could ignore.
#pt: More broadly, #Idlib is a symptom of the broader - and ongoing - #Syria crisis. The war isn't over, it's changing.

The U.S. & #Europe must sustain diplomatic & economic pressure on #Assad's regime at a time when its strategic capabilities are weakening before our eyes.
#pt: In #Washington, the #CaesarAct gives USG even more of a reason to begin sanctioning #Russia for its war crimes in #Syria.

The @UNCoISyria just attributed 2 war crimes to #Russia, for the 1st time.

The @UN Board of Inquiry into hospital bombings will be complete imminently.
@UNCoISyria @UN #pt: On the humanitarian level, the UNSC will hold a vote this Summer that could end cross-border aid into #Idlib altogether.

That would be utterly catastrophic - especially if conflict continues and/or if #Coronavirus reaches the IDP population.

We can influence that vote.
@UNCoISyria @UN The #Syria crisis isn't someone else's problem & the war isn't in its final phase.

- #ISIS is resurgent in the central desert;
- Refugees aren't going home;
- Insurgencies are reemerging;
- The economy is dead;
- Loyalist communities are restless.
etc.

We must stay engaged.
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Charles Lister

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!