youtube.com/watch?time_con…
telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/2…
After 9 months, none of this has turned up in #Idlib.
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I'm told the attack occurred shortly after an ATGM took out the position's only tank.
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1,000s of civilians are fleeing en masse today from a town that consistently resisted extremist influence.
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Clear use of thermobaric & cluster munitions. People are fleeing in their 1,000s - a mass exodus.
#Idlib was *already* the biggest humanitarian crisis in #Syria's 9yrs of conflict -- it's now spiraling out of control.
People have nowhere to go; they just move once more.
If this goes unhindered for much longer, we'll be feeling the effects for a long, long time.
But at least @SecPompeo has done his box-ticking.
A sad symbolic moment for #Syria -- the town withstood extremists for years, only to be smashed into rubble in a "counter-terror" assault.
- 358,000 displaced in #Idlib in 8 weeks.
- 400,000 more were displaced in earlier 2019 phase of fighting.
- 500,000 more likely to be displaced if fighting continues.
- "4 million civilians" live in NW #Syria zone
- 1,506 civilians killed (5% in #Assad-held areas).
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Pro-#Assad forces are now sweeping the town, after a mass withdrawal of fighters was conducted 1-2hrs ago. Civilians had fled weeks ago.
It's a destroyed ghost town. #Idlib
The world is entirely indifferent.
But they're heading into a massive, unending wave of bombardment...
Meanwhile, #Iran is signaling that "post-#Idlib," US troops east of #Euphrates will be the target:
disq.us/t/3lr80tt
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#Iran is - as expected - fully involved in/leading the W/SW #Aleppo front.
- Al-Haj Ali Ashgar, the #IRGC's lead officer in NW LDF, was killed this weekend.
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- 150+ armored vehicles deployed into E. #Idlib.
- 4 new observation posts emerging along the M5.
- Big shipment of ATGMs to #NLF
- 100s #SNA transferred to frontlines
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#Turkey fired back with 122 artillery shells targeting 46 #SAA positions - reportedly killing 8-30 #SAA soldiers.
#TSK also ceased all patrols with #Russia in NE #Syria.
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BUT, #Assad (& #Russia) have continued brutal bombing - today an IDP mini-bus was struck killing 4 kids, 3 women & 2 men.
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In the chaos, locals allege that #Russia launched - for 1st time - several airstrikes targeting #SNA east of #Aleppo.
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That's the 4th T-90 captured in the #Syria war.
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Qassem #Soleimani's death has added some symbolism - here, Harakat al-Nujaba adorn shells ready-for-launch with his name:
Al-Tarnab hosts the #Turkey observation post that was hit yesterday, killing 6 #TSK soldiers.
This'll be a huge test of how far #Ankara is willing to go to assert itself.
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800,000 civilians displaced in 10 months & 500,000+ more likely in the coming months.
#Turkey & #Assad in fatal clashes; #Russia & #Iran losing personnel.
mei.edu/blog/escalatio…
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That means over 1 million have been displaced in #Idlib since April 2019 -- the biggest humanitarian crisis in #Syria's 9yrs of war.
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#Ankara has clearly upped the ante lately, but the #SAA appears undeterred. The only chance of things de-escalating is if #Putin 'presses pause,' after speaking w. #Erdogan today.
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The territory to the north = 'Gazified' #Idlib.
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Sultan Murad arrived today:
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- Al-Rayyan gas station
- Ebla gas plant
- Homs refinery
Did #Ankara greenlight/back it? Maybe.
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The opening of W. #Aleppo front (led by #Iran) raised the prospects of sizable gains on 2 fronts, but pro-#Assad forces have lost 73+ fighters in 3-4 days:
#Russia launched ~700 airstrikes in January 2020, amid multiple strikes on hospitals.
@myacoubian provides an excellent overview of the dire humanitarian situation in NW #Syria:
usip.org/publications/2…
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- The town is not fully under siege, 1 road remains open & some opposition & #HTS forces remain in the town, engaged in clashes
- A major #NLF-#HTS counter-offensive to NW & SW has been launched on Karatin (captured), Neirab & Dadikh (under assault) & Afis.
At @GregoryPWaters' count, at least 102 have died in 4 days - a heavy toll on a front the regime expected to be easier than #Idlib.
Locals say opposition/#HTS *and* #Turkey forces evacuated just before the siege was closed.
If accurate, that'd be the 1st time #TSK fled an observation post.
Lots of rumors flying that #TSK plans to enforce a new buffer, ceding the M5 all the way north to #Aleppo.
The shelling came amid a brief & unprecedented *joint* #Turkey-opposition counter-offensive - intended as a warning pre-#Turkey-Russia talks in #Ankara today.
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The #NLF & #SNA have been supplied with armored personnel carriers, 122mm Grad rockets, anti-tank missiles & artillery pieces.
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#TSK now has more troops in #Syria than #America - & *far* more equipment & heavy weaponry. But will it risk its #Russia ties?
Escalate or surrender...
Yes the #NLF "is #SNA," but that's never translated into #Idlib - Idlibi #NLF remain distinct.
The last 36hrs have seen a shift, which cannot be so easily reversed.
- #Russia has 'pressed pause' before.
- #Assad has lost ~210 soldiers in a week (= unsustainable)
- For #Erdogan, #Idlib is existential.
The IDP flow to the border, #TSK's public deployments & strategic shift, not to mention the loss of 12+ troops in 2 weeks, is too much to go unanswered.
I've not seen any evidence to substantiate that - at all.
![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQbqV7lXYAAK_EQ.png)
Some reports claim it was a #Russia airstrike.
- #SAA helicopter downed (maybe w. MANPADS)
- #SAA shelling targets #TSK
- #TSK gives artillery support to #NLF-#SNA-#HTS ops
- #Russia jets intensify strikes on urban populated centers
- 12+ killed in airstrike in #Idlib city
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Already, nearly 700,000 have been displaced since Dec 1.
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Unclear what that would amount to, for now.
9 now appear to be 'besieged' within #Assad-controlled territory (red).
9 more remain within the opposition/#HTS zone (green).
[via @RenaNetjes]
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It's addressed to "#Trump & its puppet #Erdogan & #NATO."
563 dead in 6 weeks is significant - #Russia does take note of these details...
I do wish TV media in the U.S. would pay some attention too - #Syria may be far away, but its effects have been & will continue to be felt worldwide.
An #NLF-#SNA-#HTS ground offensive has just been launched too - seemingly in coordination with #TSK shelling:
My comments to @CNN:
cnn.com/2020/02/12/mid…
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- UN @OCHA_Syria says 832,000 people have been displaced in #Idlib since Dec 1.
Hostilities haven't even reached #Idlib city yet - this crisis is hard to fathom & only set to worsen. There are 500,000 alone in #Idlib city...
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