On Apr 17, Mr. Trump predicted a MAXIMUM #COVID death toll of 60–65k in 🇺🇸.
I predicted the toll would exceed 65k by today.
That was correct (up to a 24hr reporting delay). Current tally, May 1, is 65,435.
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My first prediction was on Apr 4 for Apr 12 (~20k deaths).
My second prediction was on Apr 12 for Apr 19 (~40k deaths).
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To review basic definitions for a Dynamical System, State & Auxiliary Variables, Flows, & Parameters see:
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Here is a schematic that shows these variables together with flows, parameters, and auxiliary variables.
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For example:
nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/…
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Based on my theory of Kinematics of #COVID, I predicted we would surpass that MAXIMUM by the end of April.
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A) CVTF still does not fully understand COVID epi.
B) CVTF understands COVID epi, but cannot succeed with making T understand it.
C) T understands COVID epi, but lies.
I can't claim to know the answer.
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To answer this, let's have a look at data for daily new cases.
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On the other hands, countries where daily new cases are at the level of ~10 or so can reopen: #SouthKorea, #NewZealand, #Australia, and very soon #Norway & #Austria.
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Moreover, it shows recoveries are very slow: #COVID causes a long illness.
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We should use this lockdown time efficiently by properly educating the public about #COVID on TV, e.g., during daily WH briefings.
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And a big thank you to all of the readers for your time, constructive comments, RTs, & likes.
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