Thread by @ejmalrai

For the endless (and hopefully the last) time, I need to return to the role of #Russia in #Syria:

#Russia is not a "twelver", neither a member of the "Axis of the Resistance". It is a superpower waking up (since 2015 only) to the need to offer another model to countries who have enough of the #US administration, its hegemony and condescending attitude towards the Middle East+

#Russia is not part of the Syrian-Iranian (and allies) struggle with #Israel.

However, the Russia intervention in the sky was determined to tip the balance of the battle in #Syria and end this war in 5-6 years in favour of the government in #Damascus. Don't ever forget this +

However, #Russia was not experienced enough when it has landed in #Syria. In the first years, it was willing to negotiate with the #US (John Kerry) & find suitable solutions 4 both. These solutions didn't fit with #Syria and #Iran because for them Assad as a person is important+.

#Russia was flexible and ready to learn and changed its policy to adapt to the need of its allies, mainly because the #US was not serious and unwilling to cooperate with Moscow.

Allies sometime rub against one another in #Syria but the strategic relationship doesn't move +

Once, #Russia/n forces came close to #Hezbollah positions and fired against Jihadists. They were asked to leave and not to return because this would attract an artillery response against the allies.

Also, Russian jet broke the sound barrier over Aleppo in a show of force. ok.+

But since the downing of the Russian Ill-20 and the death of 15 Russian officers, #Israel was no longer allowed to fly over #Syria and #Damascus received the S-300, a game-changer in the Middle East +.

The S-300 is one of the Russia capabilities provided to Syria not only against Israel. Also, Russia is providing the modernised Mig-29 and will enlarge al-Hasaka airport and other places. Strategic responses need to be constructed first, taking into consideration the priorities.+

Today the events in America is the most important because nobody knows where this is leading.
Any response against #Israel might give an advantage to #US President Trump and invite him to support his ally. Maybe not. We don't know but it is too risky for all sides. +

New measures have been adopted in 3Syria (in my article on Saturday night) making it more dangerous for #Israel to hit objectives in #Syria.
Also, #Russia is pushing the #US out of the Levant and is expanding its presence, not to replace the US, but to offer another model+

#Russia #China and #Iran give a damn about #US sanctions. They are already providing #Syria with oil, medicine, factories and much more and will continue to do so.
The #US sanctions are disregarded and that means a lot to #Syria, much more than responding to an Israeli bombing+

#Israel, #USA, #SaudiArabia, #Europe and #Turkey have lost the regime-change war. Israel is still trying to drag Syria and allies to a battle. It will happen, no doubt, but not when Israel is ready. It will happen when #Syria and allies are ready. +

In this case, #Russia and its role will be important to prevent a large escalation because Russia wants the Levant to be reconstructed not to dive into another war.+

So my advice to Twitterati: Israel and very frustrated, watching all events unfolding against its wishes. Bombing missile warehouses is not a problem. These are replaceable because they are manufactured in #Iran and are not expensive.

The last word is not to #Israel.

Patience.