GnS Economics Profile picture
Aug 11, 2020 19 tweets 20 min read Read on X
China bank failure fires warning shot at financial markets

Liquidation of the municipal lender raises borrowing costs for small peers and push more of them on the brink

#Economy still wobbling, it’s a risky time to cleanse the system
#China #recession

reuters.com/article/us-chi…
PBOC’s Attempt to Exit Crisis Mode Faces a $500 Billion Test

#China’s banks need $500 billion in fresh #liquidity this month to roll over existing #debt and buy government bonds, complicating the PBOC’s efforts to exit crisis measures.
#recession

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
China’s central bank is buying government debt?

Clearing data suggest that central bank bought sovereign bonds. #PBOC hasn’t spelled out its intentions on government debt.
#China #recession #debt

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
“A broad financial war has already started ... the most lethal tactics have yet to be used”

“We have to mentally prepare that the United States could expel China from the dollar settlement system”
#US #China #recession #economy

reuters.com/article/us-usa…
China's banking sector expected to dispose $490 billion of bad loans in 2020

“The sector will further step up bad loan disposals in 2021, as some of the problems will be exposed next year due to delayed loan payments”
#China #recession

reuters.com/article/us-chi…
China’s Peer-to-Peer Lending Purge Leaves $115 Billion in Losses

Clampdown has whittled the number to 29 platforms, from 6000

Platforms had comprised one of the riskiest and least regulated slices of the shadow banking system
#China #Banks #ShadowBank

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Borrowing to buy stocks pushes China’s record household debt

Consumer loans flowing into stocks caught regulatory attention. Household debt climbs to new high while default risk surges
#China #recession #debt #StockMarket

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
“The world may once again be pushed to the verge of a global financial crisis”

🇨🇳China warns 🇺🇸Fed easing risks financial crisis + Bad debts at Chinese financial institutions balloons significantly.
#China #US #Fed #recession #banks #crisis

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
China joins in, central bank injects 700 billion yuan

So much for "PBOC’s attempt to exit crisis mode"
#China #recession #Economy

reuters.com/article/us-chi…
Chinese citizens using cryptocurrency to move their money out of the country, hinting at capital flight

“Obviously, not all of this is capital flight, but we can think of $50 billion as the absolute ceiling for capital flight”
#China #recession

cnbc.com/2020/08/21/chi…
Unlicensed asset management companies are still operating in China, causing a “serious threat to financial stability”, a top official of China’s central bank.
#China #economy #recession

cnbc.com/2020/08/22/chi…
🇨🇳 China brace for record defaults as delinquencies are accelerating. Dangerous new phase for the nation’s $4.1 trillion corporate bond market.

“Government has neither the firepower nor the will to backstop it all”
#China #debt #bonds #recession

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
China 🇨🇳
"Current economic situation is complex and severe”

People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang urged banks to support smaller companies through innovations in financial services and products.
#China #PBOC #recession

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
🇨🇳 Beijing has enlisted nation’s mega banks to aid in recovery and they are ramping up their recruitment joining other state-owned firms in boosting employment even as lenders deal with plunging earnings and ballooning bad debt
#China #recession #Banking

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🇨🇳China's Xi worried?
Warns "period of turbulent change" as external risks rise

Economy is facing a period of turbulent change and rising external markets risk required policymakers to increasingly rely on domestic demand to spur growth
#China #recession

uk.reuters.com/article/us-chi…
🇨🇳 China’s 4 biggest banks face $940 billion capital shortage by 2024... to meet global capital requirements designed to protect the public and the financial system against massive bank failures
#China #recession

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🇨🇳 China central bank injects $29 billion via reverse repos

... injected 200 billion yuan into the banking system, a batch of 150 billion worth of reverse repos is set to mature, leaving 50 billion on a net basis via the #liquidity tool
#China #recession

reuters.com/article/us-chi…
🇨🇳 Big four #China banks see a surge in loan losses, been told to forgo profits to support the #economy

“Profitability in the banking sector will continue to face relatively large pressure in the coming one to two quarters as risks may further increase”

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
🇨🇳 Warning signs are flashing for China’s $45 trillion banking industry

Profits are plunging at the fastest pace in at least a decade, bad debt has hit a record and capital buffers are eroding.
#China #recession #debt #banks

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with GnS Economics

GnS Economics Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @GnSEconomics

Oct 5, 2020
September #PMI thread (August in brackets) 1/8
🇪🇺 #Eurozone
🇩🇪 #Germany
🇫🇷 #France
🇮🇹 #Italy
🇪🇸 #Spain
🇬🇧 #UK
+ Note on how to read PMI
#economy #recession
🇪🇺 Eurozone PMI 2/8

“With the eurozone economy having almost stalled in September, the chances of a renewed downturn in the fourth quarter have clearly risen"

Composite 50.4 (51.9)
Services 48.0 (50.5)
#Eurozone #PMI

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr…
🇩🇪 Germany PMI 3/8

"Growth in the German service sector slowed to a crawl in September, as the rebound in activity from the COVID-19 lockdown continued to lose steam"

Services 50.6 (52.5)
Composite 54.7 (54.4)
#Germany #PMI

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr…
Read 8 tweets
Oct 1, 2020
🇪🇺 Eurozone #Manufacturing #PMI

#Eurozone manufacturing growth strongest for over two years, 53.7 (August 51.7)

🇩🇪 #Germany 56.4
🇮🇹 #Italy 53.2
🇳🇱 #Netherlands 52.5
🇦🇹 #Austria 51.7
🇫🇷 #France 51.2
🇪🇸 #Spain 50.8
🇬🇷 #Greece 50.0
🇮🇪 #Ireland 50.0

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr… Image
🇩🇪 #Germany #Manufacturing #PMI

Sharp increases in output and new orders at end of third
quarter. Job shedding slows, but stocks show further steep declines.

September Manufacturing PMI 56.4 (August 52.2)

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr… Image
🇫🇷 #France #Manufacturing #PMI

Business conditions improve amid faster rise in
production. Fractionally quicker increase in new orders
supported by export growth.

September Manufacturing PMI 51.2 (August 49.8)

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr… Image
Read 8 tweets
Sep 24, 2020
September 2020 flash PMI in one thread, in following order

#US 🇺🇸
#UK 🇬🇧
#EuroZone 🇪🇺
#Germany 🇩🇪
#France 🇫🇷
#Japan 🇯🇵
#Australia 🇦🇺

+Note on diffusion indexes like the purchasing managers indexes, or #PMIs.

#economy #recession #recovery
🇺🇸 #US #PMI September 2020 (August)

Solid rise in private sector business activity in September

Composite Output 54.4 (54.6)
Services Business Activity 54.6 (55.0)
Manufacturing PMI 53.5 (53.1)
Manufacturing Output 53.3 (52.7)

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr… Image
🇬🇧 #UK #PMI September 2020 (August)

Recovery loses momentum and business outlook drops to its weakest since May

Composite Output 55.7 (59.1)
Services Business Activity 55.1 (58.8)
Manufacturing Output 59.3 (61.0)
Manufacturing PMI 54.3 (55.2)

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr… Image
Read 9 tweets
Sep 4, 2020
"Zombie firms’ productivity declines as leverage rises"

The zombie share peaked in 2010 at 16% and declined in the subsequent recovery by a mere 2 percentage points. Since 2015 the share of zombie companies is already rising again

Probability of a zombie remaining a zombie in the following year rose to 85% in 2017
#recession #economy Image
Read 4 tweets
Aug 30, 2020
🇩🇪 Longer suspension on #insolvency filings masks credit risk that explodes into wave of #bankruptcies when the moratorium ends

Also nurtures zombie companies that hold back investment and innovation and act as a drain on the #economy
#Germany #recession

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
“Zombie companies” are not a new phenomenon

They restrict the entry of new, more productive companies, diminish job creation in the economy and lock capital into unproductive uses. In a word, they are a menace to the economy and society
#recession

gnseconomics.com/2019/03/11/the…
World economy will follow the “Way of Japan” 🇯🇵

Central bankers will take an active (in practice, permanent) role in the financial markets. The hope is that this would keep the global asset bubble inflated and the world economy going
#recession

gnseconomics.com/2019/03/18/the…
Read 4 tweets
Aug 27, 2020
🇺🇸 🇯🇵 🇩🇪 🇫🇷 🇮🇹 🇪🇸 🇬🇧 🇨🇦 🇸🇪 🇰🇷
Reverse recovery

"The economic rebound in major advanced economies is stalling or even reversing"
#US #Japan #Germany #France #Italy #Spain #UK #Canada #Sweden #SouthKorea #recession

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(