Thread by @jseldin

NEW: @USAfricaCommand warns #alQaida-linked #alShabaab "remains adaptive, resilient, and capable of attacking Western & partner interests in #Somalia & East #Africa" in final @DoD_IG report on US counterterrorism ops in Africa

Despite ongoing train/advise/equip efforts by US, others "The Somali government...has not met milestones for the development of its security forces" per @DoD_IG Sean O’Donnell

#Somalia #alShabaab

In North #Africa, #alQaida in the Islamic Maghreb (#AQIM) & #ISIS-#Libya "significantly degraded & currently pose no threat to the US homeland & a minimal threat to US interests in the region" per @DoD_IG Sean O’Donnell

In #Libya "the presence of #foreignfighters & dozens of local armed militias could jeopardize ongoing efforts to demilitarize the conflict & reach a sustainable political solution to the civil war" per per @DoD_IG Sean O’Donnell

US seeing bigger problems in West #Africa, per @DoD_IG O’Donnell

Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal- Muslimin (#JNIM) "continued to expand in #BurkinaFaso, #Mali & #Niger"

NEW: Pentagon warns @DoD_IG about countering terrorist threats given @USAfricaCommand's "limited footprint on the continent"

@DeptofDefense "needs to remain postured to proactively identify these threats, determine their scope & scale & respond appropriately" per O’Donnell

.@DoD_IG report further warns the terror threat "cannot be addressed through military action alone"

US "will need to effectively leverage & coordinate the diplomatic, humanitarian & development capabilities of multiple agencies to address the underlying drivers" per O'Donnell

The report on CT efforts in #Africa is the last one from @DoD_IG "due to the sunset of Lead IG authority" per O'Donnell, who adds "my Lead IG colleagues & I will continue to provide oversight of US Gvt activities in these regions...under our respective statutory authorities"

NEW: @USAfricaCommand director of intelligence points to "a definitive shift” in #alShabaab tactics w/a greater focus on targets US interests in the region, per @DoD_IG

MORE: "The terrorist threat in East #Africa is not degraded" per @DoD_IG "#alShabaab retains freedom of movement in many parts of southern #Somalia & has demonstrated an ability & intent to attack outside of the country, including targeting US interests"

.@DoD_IG reports that per @DefenseIntel, the threat from #alShabaab & other groups, like #ISIS-#Somalia "has increased in the past 3 years" in East #Africa

Citing @DefenseIntel, @DoD_IG report states "a lack of socioeconomic opportunities & poor governance could contribute to increased violent extremist activity in East #Africa in the next 5 years"

#alShabaab controls less territory now than 10 years ago, but "continues to operate with relative impunity, particularly in areas that lack adequate government administration or security presence" per @StateDept assessment shared w/@DoD_IG

Per @DoD_IG report, #alShabaab shifting fighters to counter Somali & @amisomsomalia forces seeking to clear towns from #Mogadishu to #Marka

Shabaab also continuing to rely on insurgent-style tactics, attempted assassinations

#alShabaab force strength holding steady

@USAfricaCommand estimates group has between 5,000 and 10,000 fighters at its disposal, same as previous quarter

No significant changes due to #COVID19

#Kenya in #alShabaab crosshairs

Group “intent and capable” of carrying out attacks there & "intensified" attacks in counties bordering on #Somalia, @USAfricaCommand tells @DoD_IG

#alShabaab "also threatened to kill or kidnap Western tourists in #Kenya, which USAFRICOM said demonstrated the group’s “enduring intent to harm Americans" per @DoD_IG

US airstrikes vs #alShabaab July-September 2020

Per @USAfricaCommand the August 25 strike killed “senior al-Shabaab leader" Abdulqadir Commandos

per @DoD_IG, the Transition Plan envisioned Somali security forces would play a 'leading operational role' by the end of 2020, but they "continue to rely on int'l support...#alShabaab is not degraded to the point where Somali security forces can contain its threat independently"

#Somalia's security institutions have “a modest ability” to oversee their forces, @USAfricaCommand tells @DoD_IG “but they are dependent on the generosity of international donors to develop any capabilities”

Leadership of the #Somalia National Army improving, per @DoD_IG

But other problems persist

Even w/int'l financial support, "Somali security forces sometimes go unpaid for months"

#Somalia's gvt also having difficult extending its authority, still relies on "forces associated with the federal member states and clan-based militias often serve as the primary provider of security" per @DoD_IG

"While these sub-national forces conduct offensive operations against #alShabaab and #ISIS-Somalia, they often do not coordinate activity with each other and sometimes work at cross purposes" per @DoD_IG

.@StateDept warns implementation of the #Somali Transition Plan "badly off track"

A rewrite of the plan is underway resulting in what @USAfricaCommand called “a solid first draft as opposed to an actionable plan" lacking key planning milestones

#Somalia reliant on #Danab Brigrade units for majority - 80% - of counter #alShabaab ops

@StateDept tells @DoD_IG Danab performing relatively well but progress hurt by "inadequate troop generation, normal attrition, and combat losses"

.@DoD_IG finds overall, "The US Government has met its objective to degrade #ISIS-Libya & #AQIM in North Africa to the point where they are unlikely to conduct external operations against US interests"

Above assessment based on answers from @USAfricaCommand & @StateDept

Per @DefenseIntel, threat from #AQIM #ISIS in North #Africa "may be at its lowest point in a decade" per @DoD_IG report

#ISIS-#Libya "likely will struggle to reconstitute its network if counterterrorism pressure continues" per @DoD_IG

#ISIS-#Libya down to "fewer than 100 fighters" in the country's SW, per @DoD_IG

.@DefenseIntel "assessed that #ISIS-Libya likely relies on facilitation networks in order to recruit and bring in foreign fighters to join the group in #Libya" per @DoD_IG

Facilitation networks likely constrained by civil war, #COVID19

.@USAfricaCommand tells @DoD_IG #AQIM in worse shape, capability-wise than #ISIS

"AQIM likely has fewer than 500 fighters...concentrated in southwestern #Libya, western #Tunisia, and eastern #Algeria, but do not control any territory" per @DoD_IG report

Problems w/#foreignfighters in #Libya

@USAfricaCommand estimates there were 10,000 fighting for the Government of National Accord (GNA) or the Libyan National Army (LNA)as of the end of September 2020, per @DoD_IG

Number of #Russia|n mercenaries in #Libya holding steady

@USAfricaCommand estimates still about 2,000 from the #Wagner Group

@DefenseIntel says #UAE may be footing some of the bill but funding is "ambiguous"

Number of #Turkey-backed fighter in #Libya holding steady at about 5,000

@USAfricaCommand @StateDept say they're providing weapons/training to #GNA-aligned forces

New fighters coming into #Libya from #African countries - including about 3,000 from #Sudan to support pro-#LNA forces

Sudanese & #Chad|ian mercenaries also present on both sides of the conflict, per @DoD_IG report

As of end of September 2020, @DoD_IG assesses #BokoHaram #ISIS & #alQaida affiliates in the #Sahel "were neither degraded nor contained"

Terror groups "continued to expand geographically, conduct attacks, and threaten partner interests"

Citing @DefenseIntel, @DoD_IG warns threat in West #Africa "has increased exponentially over the last 10 years"

Says #France counterterror ops since 2013 "have likely denied [terror groups] the ability to establish permanent control of & consistent safe havens" in #Sahel #Mali

Threat from #JNIM expanding - per US military the #alQaida linked group now has about 2,000 fighters, compared to estimates of 1,000-2,000 last year

"#JNIM’s ability to conduct more attacks is attributable to many factors, including a lack of cohesion among int'l & African partner forces & lack of cross-border security" per @DoD_IG, citing @USAfricaCommand

#ISIS-Greater Sahara suffering substantial casualties but still a threat

Despite losses, @USAfricaCommand tells @DoD_IG ISIS-GW up to 500 fighters from 200-300 at the start of FY2020

.@USAfricaCommand also tells @DoD_IG after initial cooperation, conflict between #JNIM & #ISIS-GW is now intensifying

"JNIM is steadily pushing ISIS in the Greater Sahara out of #Mali and into other regions of the #Sahel" per the report

#ISIS-West #Africa is the largest of all terror groups in the region, maintaining an estimated 3,500-5,000 fighters, per @DoD_IG

#BokoHaram force strength staedy at 1,500-2,000 fighters in #Nigeria #Cameroon, per @DoD_IG